Projection Powered Player Props - June 16
Stuart Durst is back with a couple props to start your week the right way!
After another 3-0 newsletter on Friday we are 10-2 since the start of last week. While today’s slight might not be huge, I found a couple spots worth betting tonight. Check out my best bets and feel free to hit me with any questions you might have!
Clarke Schmidt 5+ K’s/Logan Gilbert 6+ K’s
Price: -119
Book: DK
The projections have Clarke Schmidt for an aggressive 7.54 strikeouts tonight. He’s shown off a nice ceiling, with 7+ strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 games and 5+ in 7 of 10 including some very tough matchups. While that’s good to see, he now gets the best matchup possible against the free swinging Angels who lead the league in strikeout rate against right handed pitching. Schmidt has also been really good against right handed pitching and had more problems against lefties, which is negated by the Angels right handed heavy lineup. While I think his ceiling his high, I think some of his alts are mispriced with how consistent he’s been.
Logan Gilbert is one of the best pitchers in the game, and he gets a great ramp up start against the Red Sox who just lost the heart of soul of that offense. The projections currently have him for 8.26 strikeouts tonight, and I agree with the aggression. I do think his ceiling is pretty capped since it’s his first game back, but he’s also thrown between 4.2 & 5.1 IP in 4 of his 5 healthy starts posting 7+ strikeouts in each one. Even with a ceiling on the pitches (last rehab start he threw 72 pitches) he should be able to get through the young Red Sox lineup in around 85ish pitches.