Projection Powered Player Props - June 10
Jon brings a handful of player props that either are going to win or lose, but hopefully they win.
Stuart has been crushing these lately, and I hope to keep the momentum going. Even though I’m pretty he’s better at this than I am. But now I’m getting competitive, and I’m looking to go a perfect five for five here.
Mick Abel Over 1.5 Walks
Book: DraftKings
Price -195
This was originally -125, and now after writing it I realize it’s been bumped way down to -195.
I have talked on here a lot about how tough it is to predict MLB walk rates. The reason for that is that we get very little useful information from the minor leagues in this regard. Strikeout rates will almost always fall when a guy goes from the minors to the Majors. But that’s not true with walk rates. They do not always go up. There’s very little correlation between the two.
Abel has not walked a single batter in two Major League starts (11.1 innings).
vs. PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB
vs. TOR: 51. IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 K, 0 BB
In AAA he posted a 10.9% BB% with multiple walks in nine of his ten starts. His ball rate down there was 36.1%. That was better than the AAA average. It’s reasonable to suspect he’ll go for decent walk rate in the minors. But to me, it’s not reasonable to think he’s one of the best walk rates pitchers in the Majors.
The key point here is that tonight he takes on the Cubs. This is a buzzsaw offense that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers. Abel is a righty who relies on four-seamers and curveballs. The Cubs collectively have a 9% BB% against righties this year. They do a lot of damage, and there aren’t many pushover matchups in this lineup.
Abel is likely to be pushed into some leverage spots that he hasn’t yet in his Major League career.
My projection is above three walks for Abel. Again, we can’t read much into that because it’s tough to project these things in the a guy’s first few starts. Looking to The Bat X, the projection is 2.0, for a bet value of +5.3%. We both agree that this DraftKings price isn’t great, so let’s go for it.
Noah Cameron Regression
Cameron is putting his magical MLB season on the line against the Yankees tonight.
I might be forcing this one a little bit. It’s not like the books are pricing this guy like he’s actually anywhere near as good as his ERA and WHIP currently suggest. There’s not a single line we really like (actually, the over 4.5 K for +130 might be the best individual line), so we’re going to get creative in our Cameron fading.