MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - May 1

Jon gives out some +EV props for the light Thursday slate.

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
May 01, 2025
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Home Run Picks

I continue to be surprised by how well the “overs” are performing this year. We have seen the model recommend 194 home run bets above a 4% value threshold. Thirty-six of them have cashed (18.5%). That’s a low hit rate, of course, but the ROI is huge at +30%. If you took them all for one unit, you’d be +58.65 units on the year.

We have seven picks clearing that threshold today. And they are heavily concentrated in this Rockies @ Giants game.

  • Heliot Ramos +680 on FanDuel

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