Finally back home in the DC, right in time for rivalry weekend! Check out my three favorite spots and feel free to drop any questions you may have!
MacKenzie Gore o6.5 Ks
Price -113
Book: FD
Projection 8.46
Edge: 21%
As a huge Nationals fan, nothing has been better than watching the development of MacKenzie Gore over these last couple seasons. While the strikeout stuff has always been there, it’s really looking like he’s put all the pieces together this season. Seeing the added slider usage for lefties and improvement on his non-curveball pitches has been huge to his development.
He is over this line in 7/9 games this year and ranks in the 93rd+ percentile in chase and whiff rates, leading all MLB pitchers with 75 strikeouts. Not only does the K stuff look great, but he is pumping out quality starts like its nothing. He has gone 5+ innings in every game this season, with 6+ IP in 7/9 starts.
Baltimore is striking out at 28.4% this season to lefties with a league-worst xwOBA. This is a great matchup for Gore to continue his great season, and I agree with the model that some ATL strikeouts look great with 8+ strikeouts at +180 and 10+ at +650.