Projection Powered Player Props - May 22
A handful of player props that the model is recommending for the Tuesday slate
Zack Littell Under 17.5 Outs
Book: DraftKings
Price +140
My model and The Bat X both agree with this one. I have Littell for 15.1 outs tonight, well below this 17.5 mark for +130.
Littell has a poor 15% K% this year and a .355 xwOBA allowed. He gets hit hard. Now, that low K% along with his low walk rate (4.2%) does turn into some efficient outings for him since hitters are getting the ball in play so quickly on him. To this point in the season, he has benefited massively from a .236 BABIP.
Because of all of that, he’s cleared six innings in seven of his nine starts. But that doesn’t mean +140 for a less-than-six outing is a bad line.
The Astros get a bunch of balls in play (lineup projected 19.6% K% tonight), and, despite their slower start, they still have a few guys who could help put up a crooked number on Littell. The model is really liking some of these Astros bats in the minor league ballpark
At the end of the day, we are hoping for that BABIP to turn around to win this bet. Littell doesn’t waste a ton of time, he throws a bunch of strikes and hopes for the best. This is a bet on the Astros knocking him around a bit and getting him out of the game in the fifth.