Projection Powered Player Props - May 23
Stuart Durst is back with three props to end your week the right way!
Back with three more props for tonight’s slate! An unfortunate 0-2 on Wednesday cooled down the heater, but I like today’s slate for a nice bounceback. Feel free to hit me with any questions you might have and check out the bets below.
Sean Burke u4.5 Strikeouts
Price: -135
Book: MGM
Projection: 4.2
Edge: 2%
While the model is pretty close on this, it still leans towards the under for the White Sox starter. While the Corey Seager-less Rangers are not a very scary offense, they also aren't one that strikes out a ton. Over the last month they are 20th in strikeout rate, sitting at 20.5% against RHP. They’ve had more struggles against lefties, but in a more manageable matchup against Burke I think the Rangers avoid the K’s.
Burke on the other side isn't much of a strikeout threat either, with a 15.1% strikeout rate and a 12th percentile chase rate. He’s under 4.5 K’s in 7 of his 10 starts this season, with his max coming at 5 strikeouts. He’s allowed an insane 16 walks over his last 4 starts and I just dont think there are enough positives in his profile to take the over here. The Rangers offense isn't great but I think he stays under the strikeouts even if the offense isn't hitting thanks to their early swing aggression in counts.