Projection Powered Player Props - May 27
Jon brings a handful of projection model powered player props for Tuesday.
Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Book: DraftKings
Price: -165
Value: +9%
Bibee finally had himself a good outing last time, and his prize for it is a matchup with the Dodgers. This is a brutal spot for the guy. There have been 54 starts against the Dodgers this year. If we look at the outings where the SP has 6+ strikeouts, we find just 16 occurrences. That’s 30%.
Add to that the fact that Bibee’s strikeout rate is way down this year. Last year, he posted a 26.3% K%. That’s a strong number. This year, he’s down to 18.1%, and his SwStr% has dropped four points to 9.6%. That is a massive, massive fall-off. He’s just not a strikeout pitcher this year. I’m feeling really good about under 5.5 strikeouts for Bibee tonight.
It does look like this line has moved, and you cannot grab under 5.5 on DraftKings currently. But the model still likes under 4.5 for +125. It’s about the same bet, just with a higher chance of losing and a bigger payout if you win.