MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - May 19

Stuart Durst helps you start the week the right way with 4 player props!

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MonotoneBetting
May 19, 2025
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Have four plays locked and loaded for today’s slate, lets jump right into them!

Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases

Price: +110
Book: B365

This isn’t the first time we’ve written up Freddie Freeman here, and it definitely won’t be the last. While you could pay +160 for his teammate Shohei Ohtani to go yard, I think I’d prefer the slightly better pricing on his Freddie, who still happens to be one of the best hitters on planet earth.

Freeman is hitting .371 (2nd) on the season ranking 98th percentile or better is xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, so it’s not like there is much concern for regression. He has at least 2+ hits in 7 of his last 13 games with plenty of extra base hits and homers sprinkled in. Pretty surprised with his pricing across the board, so grabbed some o1.5 H+R+RBI at -145 (should be -180ish IMO) and HR at +400

The only real weakness for Freddie Freeman batter props is his patience, and walks hurting you. Luckily for us, Pfaddt has only walked 9 left handed batters in 128 AB’s, ranking 80th percentile overall with his 6% walk rate on the season. Pfaddt’s pitch mix gets crushed by Freeman, and he’s really struggled with a lefty hard contract this season, especially on the road where he hasn’t been good in general.

Brendan Donovan o1.5 Total Bases

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