Projection Powered Player Props - May 14
The model finds several mispriced props, and we go for day three in the $25 to $250 challenge!
The $25 → $250 challenge is onto day three!
Day 1 (+137) ($25 → $59.47)
Mahle 5+ K
Yelich 1+ Hit
Gusto No Win
Peralta 1+ Walk
Day 2 (-156) ($59.47 → $97.70)
Ray 1+ Walk
Abbott 3+ Hits Allowed
Soto 1+ H+R+RBI
Soto cashed it in the first inning, so that didn’t feel close, but it ended up being close because he did nothing the rest of the game. It also took Robbie Ray until at least 10:45 to walk somebody, because I went to bed without that one having hit.
So we’ll get to today’s play at the end of this one. We’re going to start taking things very, very conservatively.
But first, the best model-projected props.
Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Home Runs
Book: DraftKings
Price: +1200
The Athletics are taking on Yamamoto in this spot. I have certainly noticed that my model is a bit overheated on picking homers against the guy. We’ll see a lot of these home run recommendations against Yamamoto, and that’s just because my model thinks Yamamoto is worse (at this, at least) than the DraftKings algorithm.
Yamamoto has given up just four homers all year for a 0.80 HR/9. The ground ball rate is 62%, and the slugging against is .304. So he’s really tough. For that reason, I won’t be taking all of the A’s that are being recommended here. However, +1200 for Kurtz still seems like a mistake.
Even while Kurtz has had a slow start to his big league career, his exit velocities have been elite. He’s one of very few hitters with an EV90 above 100 miles per hour. And the contact rate has been coming up rapidly.
Kurtz Contact% and K%
→ First 32 PA: 53% Cont%, 50% K%
→ Last 32 PA: 68% Cont%, 25% K%
So he has cut the strikeouts in half. And that is very good news for him.
I am not saying that Kurtz is likely to hit a homer in this one. Yamamoto is really, really tough, and there’s also a high pinch-hit probability if the Dodgers get Tanner Scott or another lefty into the game later on. What I am saying is that I agree with my model that there’s a better chance of him hitting a home run than DraftKings is offering to pay you for. And that’s the point of this whole player prop series this year. Just find where my model disagrees with the book’s models, and see if we can exploit it profitably.