Hope you guys didn’t miss me too much! Back after a 2-1 day on Friday, lets build on that momentum with my favorite spots for today’s loaded 15-game slate.
Tony Gonsolin u4.5 K’s
Odds: -103
Book: Draftkings
Projection: 4.3
Edge: 5%
Gonsolin seems to be one of the more controversial players on Gambling Twitter today, with plenty of bets on both the overs and unders for his outs and strikeouts props. While I get people don't like the argument for the under, I agree with the model that we can expect some regression after Gonsolin’s impressive home debut against the Marlins. He now has to see the same exact team a week late on the road, with this being only his second start of the season. The Dodgers have a very cautious approach when it comes to injured pitchers, and with how many that pitching staff has already dealt with I think they will lean with caution this early in the season.
One of the main reasons I see people love the over on outs is because the Marlins really don’t take many pitches, seeing the second fewest pitches per plate appearance in the MLB. While that should keep his pitch count down, it will also mean more balls in play and less strikeout opportunities. I get how dumb this could look, but sharp projections across the board see upside here, I see multiple paths to victory in only his second start since 2023 against a team that saw him a week ago.
Brent Rooker o1.5 TB +100
Odds: +100
Book: DK