MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

Projection Powered Player Props - May 12

Props that the model loves for this slate of Monday night MLB!

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
May 12, 2025
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Big Stu is traveling, so you’ve got me again today! What am I paying that guy for!?


Ryan Gusto Under 14.5 Outs +135

Gusto pitched out of the bullpen on May 4th and threw 27 pitches. His last start was April 29th, almost two full weeks ago. We are projecting Gusto for fewer than 80 pitches.

The Houston bullpen did get worked on Saturday after that Lance McCullers blow-up. But Ronel Blanco provided a Sabbath Day's rest to those relievers, taking eight of the nine innings for himself.

So the whole bullpen should be available (nobody threw more than two innings in that Saturday game), and there's a good chance they're looking to limit Gusto here.

And then there's just the more basic point that Guston has gone under 15 outs in two of his four starts, even before this quick trip to a relief role. I'm really surprised this price is +135, and I'd jump on it now before it moves.

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