Projection Powered Player Props - May 15

Stuart Durst is back with some props for today’s slate!

I’m back! Sorry for the delay, but was out in glorious Chicago for my sister’s birthday/graduation. While my luck unfortunately could not bring the Cubs a win yesterday, I’m hoping it can get us a couple winning bets tonight. We don’t have the greatest slate in the world today but feel free to hit me with any questions!

Zack Littell UNDERS

Under 3.5 Strikeouts -122 FD

U17.5 Outs +104 CZR

The model has some very solid projected edges on Zack Littell unders tonight. Instead of picking between them, I took a unit bet on strikeouts and a half unit bet on outs. He’s currently projected for 15.18 outs and 2.71 strikeouts for today’s matchup against the Blue Jays who strike out at the fourth lowest rate.

Littell has been used to eat innings this season even when he hasn’t been great, but with Pepoit getting deep into the game yesterday I could see a shorter leash with a more well rested bullpen. Despite getting deep into some games he’s still really struggled to strikeout batters (16% K rate), while simultaneously allowing the 3rd highest HR/9 of any pitchers in the majors.

The Blue Jays are coming with the best WRC+ against right handed pitchers over the last two weeks and this definitely isn’t a good get right spot. The Blue Jays have gone over the total in 9 of there last 10 games and I think they continue that trend at the expense of Littell today.