Prospects to Buy, Part 1
Four prospect standouts to target in dynasty leagues
The biggest change to MLB DW this offseason is the introduction of this new section, Minor League Data Warehouse. You’ve seen Tim Kanak and Doc Eisenhauer doing bi-weekly podcasts. We’re going through all 30 teams looking at their top 20 prospects (based on Tim’s rankings). And there’s a lot more coming. Tim has a bunch of ranks and player write-ups coming.
That’s a big addition, and it’s very exciting.
A major focus of mine in October and November was bulking up the minor league dashboard. With Tim’s fScores system and my coding and dashboarding prowess, I don’t think it’s out of school at all to say that we have the best minor league data tools on the market. I guess I haven’t seen them all, so I can’t know for sure, but they’re pretty freakin’ good!
Those tools are all available to paid subs, and there are a lot more coming. You can get the links in the Resource Glossary. You’ll see some screenshots of the tools below, and you see them in action during all of the prospect previews podcast.
Today, I’ve asked the guys for some of their favorite prospects to buy right now. And I’ve done the rest of the work. Here’s analysis on four of MLB DW’s favorite prospects to buy into ahead of the 2026 season.
Carter Jensen (C), Kansas City Royals
Here’s the guy the Royals are hoping is their replacement if Salvador Perez ever stops playing. Jensen is a power-hitting catcher who has already made it to the Majors. He played ten games at catcher and ten at DH for the Royals late last year, hitting a cool .300/.391/.550 with three homers in a 17% K% in 69 PAs. That’s the way you make an impact! Unfortunately, his minor league stats aren’t quite as jaw-dropping:
→ 492 PA, .290/.377/.501, 20 HR, 25% K%, 10 SB
I’m not saying that’s a bad line, it just makes the 17% K% and .550 SLG in the Majors less believable.
What is believable is the raw power.
He went for a very nice 107.3 EV90 in AAA last season with a 15.8% Brl%. You don’t find too many 15% barrel rates in the minors.
It did come with the strikeouts in AAA. That’s a potential issue for him, and something that MLB pitchers will likely exploit in 2026.
His zone-contact rate of 86.4% in AAA is encouraging, and he mostly repeated it in the Major League sample (84.8%). More encouraging Major League stats (but don’t forget the smallness of the sample size):
→ .460 xwOBA
→ .351 xBA
→ 23% Air Pull%
→ 74.3mph bat speed (three points above league average)
→ 108.1 EV90
The launch angle stuff was weird. He had just a 17% FB%, but it wasn’t because he was hitting everything on the ground (46% GB%). It was an unsustainably high line drive rate and sweet spot rate (44%), and that helps the xStats quite a bit.
We’re likely to see a mid-20s K% or higher next year, and that could send him into some slumps that he’ll have to battle through. But the power is for real, and he’s been a double-digit steals guy in each of the last three seasons to boot. There’s a lot to like in Jensen right now, and he could prove to be a huge value at the catcher position in 2026 drafts if he makes the team out of camp. There’s no guarantee on that, of course, but he’s got a path to it.
To get the rest of this post and everything else going on at MLB DW, become a paid subscriber today!