Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: Toronto Blue Jays
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
The Blue Jays won 92 games, made the playoffs, but were bounced immediately. They could not keep pace with the Yankees in the division, and things are up in the air for 2023. They don’t have the best rotation, and they have already let go of Teoscar Hernandez. It’s possible this team takes a step backward, but we’ll see what they do this offseason. For now, let’s push on.
Pitchers
Kevin Gausman
It was another strong year for Gausman in 2022, however, it was a bit of a regression from his 2021 season. Here are the numbers:
31 GS, 3.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 28.3% K%, 3.9% BB%, 30.7% CSW%, 16.4% SwStr%
2021:
33 GS, 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 29.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, 32.2% CSW%, 16.4% SwStr%
So it wasn’t a big fall-off. The K-BB stuff and the SwStr% stayed great, in fact, the K-BB got better with a superb 3.9% BB%. It’s all good for Gausman even at the age of 31 here now.
We have seen really good SwStr% rates from Gausman since way back in 2019, and then in 2020 we saw the K% kick up and it has stayed there while he’s maintained a low walk rate.
The arsenal:
He is still really dependent on the splitter to get the whiffs. His four-seamer is below average in whiffs, but good in CSW%, and the slider has an underwhelming SwStr% as well. It’s all about that splitter which is one of the best pitches in the entire league with a super-elite 26.9% SwStr% and an elite .315 xwOBACON.
His splitter went for a 25.7% SwStr% and a .320 xwOBACON in 2021, so it’s been a consistently elite pitch.
I don’t have anything bad to say about Gausman. He had the sixth-best K%-BB% of any starter with 25+ GS, and he had no homer issues or anything like that to speak of. He’s great, I’m ranking him right ahead of Shohei Ohtani.
Comps/RankArounds: Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease
Alek Manoah
Manoah really established himself as one of the game’s better pitchers in 2022, putting a big old confirmation stamp on his great rookie year in 2021.
31 GS, 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 22.9% K%, 6.5% BB%, 28.7% CSW%, 12.3% SwStr%
The bad news is that a lot of these more important, underlying numbers got worse. Here’s the line from 2021:
20 GS, 3.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 27.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 29.9% CSW%, 14.3% SwStr%
So the ERA and WHIP got better, but the strikeouts and whiffs came way down. The walk rate being lowered helps to be sure, but overall I’m a little worried about the pretty pedestrian 12.3% SwStr%.
He once again posted one of the better SwStr% on a four-seamer in the league, which he did in 2021 - so I guess we can believe that he’ll be able to do that moving forward. The slider was fine but not great at 15.9% SwStr% and 28.4% CSW%, and then he throws a sinker which works pretty well for what it is (61% GB%, 2.7% Brl% is what you want to see from a sinker).
The thing with Manoah has been the SPLITS:
RHB: 28% K%, 3.2% BB%, 14.6% SwStr%, .159 AVG, .249 SLG, .214 xwOBA
LHB: 18.9% K%, 9.1% BB%, 10.6% SwStr%, .237 AVG, .367 SLG, .323 xwOBA
The numbers aren’t bad against the lefties. Even with the low swinging strike counts there, they still don’t hit the ball with much authority - but it seems like this is going to keep the K% down, and it’s just not a good sign overall.
Manoah faced a left-handed batter 56% of the time. Right-handed pitchers as a whole in the league faced a left-handed batter just 45% of the time - so lineups were clearly being loaded with lefties against him on purpose.
This isn’t necessarily bad news. He still had a good year despite this, and it does open up the possibility for a big jump forward if he can improve against lefties. The way to do that would be with the changeup, which he has - but it’s not all very good with the 9.4% SwStr% and 21.1% CSW%. I wouldn’t be surprised if Manoah is making that pitch his main priority this offseason, and any improvement there would make a big difference for him.
It’s also probable that he’ll face lefties LESS next year just because he saw them at the league’s second-highest rate:
So that could all help him.
The guy is 24 years old and has never pitched poorly in the Majors. He’s been great at every level (he had a 40.9% K% and a 4.5% BB% in 18 innings in AAA in 2021), and therefore I think he’ll just get better and better. I like him just fine, but certainly he’s not a top 10 pitcher or anything at this point.
Comps/RankArounds: Zac Gallen, George Kirby
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