A division full of 2-1 teams! Who saw the Steelers and Browns playing for first place, even just here in week four? I’m a Pittsburgh guy, so I have a little extra interest in this game. I know my wife will watch along with me tonight, so that’s always a fun time.
Game Info
The line implies that these teams are pretty equally matched. That’s alarming to my fellow lifelong Steelers fans. Being just a 2.5-point favorite against the Browns, even on the road, is uncharted territory. But that’s what happens when you roll out a 42-year-old QB.
The Browns want to run the ball, but haven’t been able to do it effectively with just 3.5 yards per carry. The Steelers have been pretty throw-heavy (+3.5 PROE) so far, but didn’t have any success with that until last week against the Bengals. They need protection for Rodgers to make it work, but the Browns don’t blitz a ton and have just 16 QB hits and seven sacks (both are in the middle of the pack). Losing Myles Garrett was a big deal.
The Steelers are tied for 7th in the league with eight sacks. They will surely be coming after Deshaun Watson, who has one of the highest sack rates in NFL history. So many of these Steeler games are decided by them making a huge play while pressuring the QB. That’s something to watch for.
Deshaun Watson has held his own and thrown five touchdowns to one interception, but he’s taken nine sacks and has a low ADoT of 6.2 yards. This seems like a turnover-heavy spot for the Browns.
BET: TJ Watt 1+ Sack, Deshaun Watson 1+ INT (parlay for +140)
When Watson does have some time, which could be rare, he can beat the Steelers defense. They traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas to end that saga, and Jalen Ramsey is playing with a broken wrist. There’s a reason the Steelers have given up 7.8 yards per pass attempt and a high number of big plays through the air. I think Denzel Boston (14.1-yard ADoT) is a good bet to haul in a long completion. But outside of single plays, we shouldn’t be betting on the Browns to do much scoring in this one.
Rico Dowdle is out, and that makes Jaylen Warren the best fantasy play in this game.
Dude was electric last week. He’s one of the best carriers of the ball in terms of missing tackles and getting big gains. It’s weird to me that they gave Dowdle so much work in the first two weeks, but that’s not a concern for tonight. Warren went for 17 xFP last week on 17 carries and four targets. I think he’s going to catch 5+ balls tonight, that’s how he’s best utilized.