Possible Super Bowl preview??
We have the NFC favorite against the #2 team in the AFC, per Polymarket. I’ll be taking some positions for MNF in the MLB DW Polymarket squad tonight. Use this link to join that, and get a sign-up bonus if you’re a new account. We had a winning Sunday on a few purchases. I’ve been comparing the lines between DK and Polymarket, and they’re almost always more favorable on the prediction market side of things.
Huge total at 54.5 points. The team grades from my own little algorithm:
Bills: 124 on offense (elite), 100 on defense (average)
Rams: 118 on offense (elite), 129 on defense (elite)
That model had the Seahawks as the #1 team from the middle of the season on last year, so you could say that algo is a perfect ONE FOR ONE at picking the Super Bowl winner. Stop the count!
The current top 10 teams:
So let’s try to figure out how this MNF game is going to go.
Bills Side
Quarterback
Josh Allen. There’s not much reason to break him down in detail. He has six passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns in four games. He’s +0.26 in EPA and at 8.5 yards per attempt. The only problem is three interceptions and a non-elite completion percentage of 65%. But whatever, the floor is so high with his throwing and rushing.
This is a tough defense, which might work against the Bills. But it’s a 54.5-point total, and the Bills are implied for 25.5 points, so that speaks for itself. The Rams are still without Myles Garrett, but they’ll have Aaron Donald in this one. They haven’t had those two together this year, so the defense could end up being a lockdown unit late in the year, but we shouldn’t expect the Bills to be stifled in this one, and the Rams offense is going to put pressure on Allen to go all-out for this big game.
Running Back
James Cook is second to only Kenneth Walker in yards per carry this year with six yards per carry (Walker’s at 6.3). He has 57, 135, 154, and 75 yards on the ground this year. They didn’t run a ton of plays last week and Cook got just 12 carries. I’m sure they didn’t like that result.
The thing that kept Cook from having massive fantasy games is all the touchdowns that Josh Allen steals and the fact that he has just six catches and 24 receiving yards all year. He’s not being used as a pass catching back, so his fantasy points come from high-efficiency volume on the ground. And there have been enough touchdowns to go around to have him with three touchdowns in four games. That touchdown pace should regress upward, I don’t think Allen can average 1.75 rushing touchdowns per game all season.
The Rams have been better at stopping the pass (4.8 yards per attempt) than stopping the run (4.0 yards per carry) so far. That’s the best YPA allowed in the league. Their yards per carry allowed is just a little bit better than the league average of 4.2.
So it’s a nice spot for Cook matchup-wise. The game script might not go his way since the Rams are capable of scoring early and often. A high pass rate for the Bills is bad for Cook, but that kind of approach should push him into the 4+ target range.
But there are paths to Cook not being worth this showdown salary. If you’re playing a lineup that projects the Rams to score big points through the air, it’s sharp to leave Cook off of that build while playing Josh Allen and a cheaper Bills pass catcher.
Pass Catchers
Major injury stories here. Joshua Palmer is out and DJ Moore is questionable. It’s tough to build lineups without knowing that Moore status. It’s a game-time decision, and a big one at that.
Moore has missed significant time already, and yet has an 18% target share overall and a team-leading 29% target per route. He’s their main guy and has been great with Josh Allen throwing him the ball so far.
If he’s out, there’s major value. Even if he’s in, the Joshua Palmer injury opens up some spots for other guys. Palmer has played 42% of snaps this year, so he’s on the field a lot. He’s seen a target on 19% of his routes, which is significant.
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