I know the Cowboys have been less than impressive this year and do most of their offensive damage at home. But just a 4.5-point favorite against this beaten-down Eagles team? That was surprising to me.
The Eagles roll into this one with Tanner McKee at QB and they’re down DeVonta Smith again. They do get Saquon Barkley back, but how much can a RB do for a team starting an unqualified QB?
Let me start there.
Eagles Side
McKee went 26/45 (58% completion rate) for 215 yards (4.8 YPA), and a -0.18 EPA in his first start. It was not good. His ADoT was eight yards, which is a little bit lower but nothing crazy. Maybe that experience, a week of practice as the defined starter, and a soft matchup with the Cowboys secondary will help him.
He’s not a mobile quarterback. So you don’t get fantasy points like that. At least he looks the part at 6’6’’. Maybe he’ll surprise us, and the books think he’s better than I do, I guess. And they’re probably right.
Saquon Barkley being back should turn this into a run-heavy approach for the Eagles if the Cowboys offense gives them that luxury. The Eagles had to throw it a ton last time with no competent RB healthy (+10% PROE%), but there’s no way that’s the approach at the beginning of this game tonight.
The pass catcher group doesn’t have a lot of reliable options in it for McKee to throw toward. Smith being out hurts, so they’ll have to go to Dallas Goedert quite a bit. He’s the top projected dude by a good margin.