Game Environment
We have the Rams as a seven-point home favorite hosting the Giants. And it’s going to be tough not to react against that with recency bias. The Rams looked bad in week one, getting pounded by the 49ers in Australia. The Giants offense looked terrific and took it to the Cowboys at home in week one. And yet the Rams are a seven-point favorite.
The markets are smart, and they don’t do the one-game reaction stuff. The Rams were the Super Bowl favorite before the year, and the Giants expectations were low.
It’s a 47.5-point total. That’s a little higher than I thought it would be. Neither of these offenses is definitely good right now. I say that on the Rams side because Puka Nacua is probably not playing in this one. The Rams defense is down Myles Garrett now, so that’s a big loss. Aaron Donald will play, but who knows if he can still do it the way he used to after coming out of retirement.
It’s a big fat question mark to me. I have no freaking clue what’s up with these two teams. But we have projections, at least.
PUKA
A top-three WR in the game being out on a team with a pocket passer is a big deal. The Rams don’t have a logical replacement for him either.
Week one routes for LAR: Nacua 20, Adams 20, Kyren 20, Parkinson 18, Whittington 13, Ferguson 12, Mumpfield 10
Nacua took nine targets for a 36% share. He moves all around the field and is the key part of the offense. They can’t send Davante Adams on that route tree, so they’ll have to get creative. Probably some extra run plays and RB stuff in the passing game. And maybe a big game loading for Colby Parkinson.
But all of this assumes that Nacua is out, which isn’t for sure. That’s just the assumption we’re taking heading into it.
The Giants saw an elite debut for Jaxson Dart. He threw for 230 yards, three touchdowns, no picks. He put up an elite 0.71 EPA (a one game sample really doesn’t tell you much in that regard especially against the Cowboys D). More importantly for fantasy is that he was not afraid to run, going 11 for 54 with his legs.
Malik Nabers was restricted a bit, but still looked pretty good and went 6-69-0 on nine targets with a 39% TPRR. The usage could tick up after getting a game on his new knee. Darnell Mooney led the team with 25 routes, but saw just two targets. Isaiah Likely caught two touchdowns on an elite 35% TPRr, going 8-78-2 on eight targets.
So the Giants approaching was slamming Cam Skattebo up the middle, letting Dart run to the outside, and throwing the ball to Nabers and Likely.