Pretty nice TNF game this week. The Patriots go into Chicago as a three-point underdog with a 50.5-point total. The line suggests the teams are equal in strength.
The team grades give the Patriots the edge in both offense (114 vs. 107) and defense (105 vs. 89). However, the Bears have only had their QB for half of the young season so far, so the offense grade is weighted toward a lot of QB play from Keenum and Bagent.
The Bears have played pretty neutral pass/run wise while Williams is in there. Last week, with the whole gang healthy, they went for 4.8 yards per play, a middling number against the Falcons. Just 3.0 yards per carry against that tough defense, but the pass game was cooking at 8.0 yards per pass.
The Patriots have AJ Brown back, and he got some snaps last week, so we expect a full go for the Patriots' best playmaker. They have played to a perfectly even 0% PROE%, which actually means they’re a little pass-heavy since the average is less than 0 (due to the models being trained on multiple years and the league going more run-heavy in the last few years).
Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye has really gotten it going. And now he gets Brown back and a matchup with a poor defense. His last three games: 878 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT, +0.5 EPA. He looks like the AFC MVP he was last year once again. And this matchup is just so good. It’ll be nice weather for offense in Chicago tonight, and Maye is one of the better QBs in fantasy football right now.
Projection: 246 pass yards, 1.7 TD, 0.8 INT, 5.5 rushes, 26 rush yards, 0.2 TD
Running Back
TreVeyon Henderson’s ankle injury must not have been nearly as bad as originally reported, because he played last week after it looked like he might need to go on the IR. So they didn’t lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson last week. They gave Corey Kiner 11 carries. So three different backs had 8+ opportunities.
Sort of ugly stuff there. Kiner returned kicks, so he should be active tonight. But I would guess with another week for Henderson’s ankle, it’ll be Stevenson + Henderson getting almost all of the work.
Stevenson’s down to just 3.6 yards per carry and a 16% target per route on limited pass game participation. He should do better than that against the Bears defense, but nobody in this backfield really pops with everybody healthy and no electric playmakers present.
Pass Catchers
As the Patriots got AJ Brown back, they lost Romeo Doubs. The pass catcher data from last week:
We have AJ Brown ready for the alpha role. This looks like a smash night for Brown. You know they’re eager to get him going after the frustrating start to the season, and with Doubs out, there’s not much talent behind him. He led the team in routes last week and was targeted on 27% of his routes, but it didn’t result in much. But the talent is there, and he’s the featured player in this offense. I love him for the showdown and want to go overweight and use him plenty as captain.
The second guy now looks like DeMario Douglas, who saw eight targets last week. He has a 19% TPRR this year and 1.62 yards per route. Solid numbers, but nothing terrific.
Kyle Williams ran 20 routes last week and is in line for more with Doubs out. He’s seen just a 14% TPRR, but a healthy 2.13 yards per route this year. We haven’t seen much consistency with the WRs that have been available this year, so it’s tough to project where the ball will go behind AJ Brown tonight. But I think you can use both of these WRs in the showdown, there’s a good chance one of them should be very involved.
Hunter Henry has a 14% share of the targets, a 16.5% TPRR, 1.6 YPRR. He brings a decent floor, but very little ceiling unless he lucks into multiple touchdowns.
Projections
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