I have version one of the detailed projections ready for people to test out. They’re in the app. So if you already have that access and know how to get in there, go to the “Betting Projections” tab and start clicking around. They’re brand new, and the accuracy testing I did was all retroactive. But the tests, to me, looked pretty good. I would appreciate anybody going in there and logging some data and doing whatever tests you’d normally do, if that’s the kind of thing you do. I’ll work them in through this post.
Game Environment
After a banger Monday night game, we get an ugly one for Thursday night. Two really good defenses, only one good offense, and even that good offense on the Seattle side is a little suspicious.
The Seattle defense has put the clamps on. Here’s where the defenses line up, I even drew some circles myself to help you out:
Seattle hasn’t allowed much of anything either on the ground and through the air. Denver has been worse than last year, and is still missing Patrick Surtain tonight. The game being in Denver is beneficial to the Broncos, but it’s fair to say that the Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball.
Broncos Side
QUARTERBACK
I’ve got this new NFL data viewer app. You’ll see some screenshots from it. I’m not sure what to do with it other than just keep it for myself.
Bo Nix has really struggled. Remember that he got really hot at the end of the 2024 season and looked like a breakout star in the league. But last year was nothing special, and now he has averaged 5.74 yards per attempt with a negative EPA this year.
The stat that most stands out to me is his 5.4-yard ADoT. That’s the lowest in the league.
Lowest Average Depth of Pass Attempt
Bo Nix 5.2
Jalon Daniels 6.0
Michael Penix 6.3
Kyler Murray 6.3
Sam Darnold 6.7
So the QB on the other side is here as well, but 5.2 is way below everybody else. Sutton’s at an 11-yard ADoT; Waddle’s at 9.4. So it’s not that their primary receivers can’t get open down the field; it’s that Nix has been opting into a bunch of dump-offs.
Seattle’s defense is 4th in the league in QB hits with 40; they’ve sacked the QB 14 times, which is tied for seventh in the league. So Nix will be under some pressure tonight, and he’ll probably continue to attempt to complete a bunch of short passes. Not that it’s working for him! He’s averaged less than 200 yards per game.