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The Run Environment
Two games sit alone at the top. SD @ KC prints an 11.74 sim total (SD 6.44, KC 5.30) and BAL @ HOU is right behind at 11.70, with Baltimore’s 6.95 the single highest team total on the board against Spencer Arrighetti. Those are your run pools, and the field knows it, so the leverage is in how you get there.
The middle tier is bunched: STL @ ARI 10.08, MIA @ MIL 9.13, TB @ BOS 9.07, TEX @ ATL 9.21. The quiet spots are PIT @ CLE at 7.44 (lowest on the slate) and NYM @ PHI at 8.12, both pitcher-friendly.
The trap is piling into San Diego bats at KC prices while the sim quietly loves the Baltimore side against Arrighetti at cheaper tags. Weather is clean: Houston and Arizona are closed domes (no wind talk), and while PIT @ CLE shows a 16 mph breeze it blows left to right, not out, so it does not save that game.
Weather
Pitching
