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Well, yesterday SUCKED. I think I’m 2-3 in cashing double ups now since I recommitted myself to them. Which means I’m one good lineup away from even.
I have an excuse on this one because Zach Neto got scratched way after lock so I had to pivot to Mookie Betts as Bobby Witt Jr. was already locked. So I think I should get my money back!
Let’s hit it again today. A big old 11-game slate for this fine Tuesday.
Weather
Another clear day across America. No weather risk whatsoever, you love to see it.
The WINDS are working against the hitters in Wrigley #allegedly:
So the O/U model is on the OVER, because my stuff doesn’t react nearly as much to the weather as the masses and the books do:
We’re now at a 53.6% win rate on those bets. Down a couple of points from a couple of weeks ago. We haven’t been very good in these wind spots in Wrigley. So maybe I’ll just capitulate and agree with the books on that O/U of 7.5. But we’ll see!
Game Info
Brewers vs. Trevor McDonald
HOLD THE PHONE, this is WRONG. Trevor McDonald is kind of good!
A 17% K-BB% with a 61% GB%, and yet the Brewers are -268 on the moneyline with an implied total of 5.45 behind Kyle Harrison? EFF-THAT. We’re McDonald people here and we’re anti-Harrison. Giants win that game. Write it down, BOOK IT.
Yankees vs. Cantillo
I can get behind this one. The Yankees at home against a dude who doesn’t do a lot well. It could be an eruption spot for the Yankees if Cantillo isn’t really crushing with his changeup, which is his only good pitch.
Angels vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
It seems like the Angels routinely fail in their best spots. They did put eight runs on the board last night against Freeland, so that worked. And now they get Sugano and his 5.23 JA ERA. He’s one of the worst pitchers in the league, he probably never should have been signed by an MLB team coming over from Japan. But good for him, I guess. The O’s gave him $13 million last year. He was 35 years old and clearly not good. And needless to say they didn’t bother to give him another contract. So he ends up where all of these types end up, the Colorado Rockies.
Dodgers vs. Soroka
Perfectly fine to pile up some Dodgers against Soroka. But not an elite spot. Soroka has held his own this year, and the Dodgers are expensive.
Reds vs. Cameron
Two pretty similar pitchers battling in Cincinnati with Abbott taking on Cameron. Low velo but “over-performing” lefties who have their ways. With Elly shelved, I don’t think I love the idea of picking heavily on Cameron and the nice 46 PA/HR he’s given up this year.
The bottom of the list:
Giants vs. Harrison
Guardians vs. Schlittler
Mets vs. Gilbert
Athletics vs. Taillon
Athletics vs. Taillon!? Only a 3.6 run implication, 0.7 runs below their season average. Just because of 10mph winds that might be blowing in? Screw that man, I hate these wind spots in Wrigley. I’d love them if we were winning by betting against them. But yeah, I’m on the Athletics tonight. Especially in tournaments. These guys can hit the long ball, and nobody is better at giving those up than Jameson “Tater” Taillon.
Pitchers
We’ve gotta nail it tonight. We need 45 points from our SPs, or at least a 2.5x return. Let’s get to these beautiful DFS projections.