Slate Breakdown - Opening Day
The first slate breakdown of the year! DFS, betting, and overall thoughts and analysis on today's games.
We have done it again. We all survived another winter and another offseason. And now it’s time to get back into MLB.
I’m personally a big fan of DFS; that’s mostly what started all of this business. I can take or leave the sports betting, but we’ll be grinding out edges and looking for what we can find on that front as well.
MLB DW Pro members have access to the daily projections and all of the tools that come with them via the web app. That app won’t be completed, finely tuned, and humming for a week or so into the season. I’m scrambling to get everything running and ready to handle the load. So I appreciate the patience on that front. Let me know what’s wrong or what could be improved if you’re a pro member, and I will prioritize your requests if they’re reasonable.
If you’re a paid sub - please bookmark these resource glossary pages! That’s where I’ll be putting the links to all of the resources. I know it’s not the perfect and most organized system, but I’m operating within the bounds that Substack gives me. I get a ton of messages asking where to find the tools, and the answer will always be the RESOURCE GLOSSARY!
BASIC PAID SUB RESOURCE GLOSSARY
This post will be free for all, but after a couple of days here we’re not going to have much free content at all. Even the full versions of the daily notes will be limited to paid subs (not the PRO members, just the $13.99 month or $85/year subscription).
Let’s go for it. I’ve written up a DFS slate preview and then I’ve given away a few of the top model bets for the day at the bottom.
DFS Breakdown
PRO MEMBERS: There’s a DFS optimizer available on the web app, but I haven’t had the time to test & verify it with live data. Tread carefully early on. If you have access to another optimizer, I would use that one. Just import my projections into that. I’ll let you know when I confirm that the optimizer is useful.
I play on DraftKings. I’ve never done anything with FanDuel. I apologize if you’re a FanDuel player, because it’s not going to be the same level of content. But the projections do have the FanDuel points projections on there.
I’ll also try to keep this interesting for everybody who doesn’t play DFS. Some of best season-long players and waiver wire managers are DFS players because we’re looking at teams and players daily to find values. Nobody knows the unknown dude popping up to the lead-off spot for a team like a DFS grinder.
How I’ll typically be doing this:
A close look at pitchers
A look at stacks
A list of cash plays (the best plays per the projections)
I have a subscription to The Bat X projections, so I’ll be referencing those and letting those help us out as well. More to come on that. But obviously, I can’t give you guys those projections; you’ll have to purchase them yourself over at RotoGrinders if you’re interested. And I do recommend it, those daily projections are probably a bit better than mine. So if you’re serious, the best way to go is probably to leverage both systems.
PURCHASE THE BAT X DAILY PROJECTIONS HERE
PITCHERS
We have “the big three” on the slate, unsurprisingly.
Tarik Skubal $10,500 at SD
Paul Skenes $10,000 at NYM
Garrett Crochet $9,700 at CIN
An $800 gap between Skubal and Crochet, who is in a better matchup, makes it pretty easy to prefer Crochet. Skenes usually doesn’t project quite as well as these two other guys because of a slightly lower strikeout rate and lower win probabilities on average, but he’s particularly hard to pay for on this slate with probably a pitch count capped around 85-90 (he did not exceed 70 all spring) and being in a really tough matchup with the Mets.
Hunter Brown ($9,500) will probably shove right out of the gate and make my offseason hate of him look stupid. It’s a good spot against the strikeout-heavy Angels, and he’s a favorite at home against Jose Soriano. You can go there, but he really shouldn’t be this close in price to Crochet.
There’s no shortage of good pitching options on the board, as will always be the case with Opening Day. It’s tough to win if you don’t get a ton of points from your pitchers since there will be so many to go around. But we’ll examine some of the cheaper options.
Jacob Misiorowski ($7,500) vs. CWS: I’m guessing this is the chalk play of the day. But, as it usually goes with chalk, there’s a great reason for it. DraftKings is so rewarding of strikeouts, and with all of the issues that you can point to with Mizz, strikeouts ain’t one of them. He’s good for 5+ K’s here. But it’s a very reasonable tournament fade if we actually think the ownership will be out of control. With all of these other names on the board, I don’t think it’s going to be exorbitant. So I’m in on Misiorowski. He worked the whole way up to 86 pitches in his last outing.
Drew Rasmussen ($6,700) vs. STL: He’s not a tourney option for me. There’s very low ceiling, especially on this slate. But the floor of points for him throwing 85 pitches against the Cardinals is nice.
Matthew Liberatore ($6,000) vs. TB: Liberatore looked great in spring. I looked some pitch profiler stuff, and he doesn’t actually look any different than last year when he went for just a 19% K% and a 4.09 ERA. But he was really good out of the gate last year, and this is a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that is going to surprise some people with how bad they are, I think. I’m not thinking he’s a cash play with all these studs on the board, but I’ll have some action in tournaments.
Cade Cavalli ($6,300) vs. CHC: The hype came late, I think I was one of the first guys gassing him up this offseason, but it did come. And now I feel like it might be a big old trap spot. For $6,300 and with all of the positive stuff we’ve been saying about Cavalli, it looks nice. Add on the fact that he didn’t give up an earned run all spring, and I think people are going to be on this. But the whiffs and strikeouts weren’t there this spring, and this is not an easy matchup with the Cubs, even with Tucker out of town. So I’ll probably be out on Cavalli here, but I’ll be very interested in the results since I’ve got plenty of him in the season-long game.
I don’t think it’s ever the right move to spend $19,000+ on pitching. So I’d like to pair Crochet with someone cheaper for the cash lineup. And while you don’t love trusting a wild pitcher like Jacob Misiorowski, I think that’s the proper move. Those two cost just $17,200.
STACKS
ORIOLES VS. JOE RYAN
Ryan has not had a normal spring. He dealt with some back stuff and went back and forth on being on the WBC team. But he’s healthy enough to make an Opening Day start today. And he’s a good pitcher, don’t get me wrong, but he’s also very much vulnerable to the long ball, and that’s what we want to target, generally, when DFS stacks. The Orioles lineup looks like one that will have some very big games along the way this year. They’re the model’s favorite 1-5 stack.
Henderson $5,300
Ward $4,200
Alonso $5,100
Rutschman $3,900
O’Neill $3,000
RED SOX VS. ANDREW ABBOTT
The heavy fly baller gets an Opening Day start in Cincinnati. Any time that happens, we have the chance for multiple homers allowed. Abbott has mostly been able to limit damage in his career, but even at his best - he’s been giving up an above-average home run rate.
There are super high temperatures in the middle of the country today. It’s going to be around 80 with some wind blowing out toward left field. I think it might be a bumpy start to the year for Abbott.
We’d prefer the righties against the lefty Abbott gave up 17 of his 19 homers to righties last year and had an elite .271 xwOBA allowed to lefties.
Roman Anthony $5,400
Trevor Story $4,000
Jarren Duran $4,900
Willson Contreras $4,100
BREWERS VS. SHANE SMITH
I like Shane Smith. But the projections… don’t. The Brewers are the #2 projected DK scoring offense (Red Sox #1) against the righty. They put a lot of pressure on pitchers at the top of the lineup. And this game is at home, which helps them.
We’re also getting pretty nice price tags on the Brew Crew out of the chute:
Jackson Chourio $5,200
Brice Turang $4,300
William Contreras $4,200
Christian Yelich $4,500
RAYS VS. MATTHEW LIBERATORE
This is a cheap, low-owned leverage spot. The Rays aren’t a good lineup, and I think people will be hesitant to pick on Liberatore after that spring. But it’s super hot in St. Louis and we have real doubts that Liberatore has truly improved.
Apparently some Stuff+ models have his stuff through the roof this spring, while others have him looking exactly the same as last year. So that’s suspicious. I think we’ll want some Rays action in DFS stacking because you might get a really nice game at very low ownership. It’s another spot where you prefer the righties.
Yandy Diaz $4,000
Jonathan Aranda $4,200
Junior Caminero $5,800
Ben Williamson $2,200
I also like Carson Williams for $2,600.
VALUE PLAYS
Tournaments are all about upside, and probably about stacking. The correlations you get with stacking makes it a pretty obvious thing to do. But for cash, we want to build floor and just play the best plays. So I’ll try to point those out every time I write one of these.
CATCHER
Sam Basallo $3,300
William Contreras $4,200
Ivan Herrera $4,000
FIRST BASE
Willson Contreras $4,100
Michael Busch $4,600
Yandy Diaz $4,400
Pete Alonso $5,100
SECOND BASE
Nasim Nunez $2,800
Brice Turang $4,300
Brandon Lowe $4,200
THIRD BASE
Ben Williamson $2,200
Matt Shaw $2,600
Caleb Durbin $3,400
SHORTSTOP
Nasim Nunez $2,800
Jared Triolo $2,600
Zach Neto $4,200
OUTFIELD
Ryan Vilade $2,000
Garrett Mitchell $2,400
Jonny Deluca $2,6000
Pete Crow-Armstrong $5,000
Roman Anthony $5,4000
Jackson Chourio $5,200
Oneil Cruz $4,800
Yordan Alvarez $5,200
Kyle Schwarber $5,900
OPTIMAL LINEUP
Here’s what the optimizer is spitting out for today’s opto:
SP CROCHET $9,700
SP RYAN $8,700
C CONTREARS $4,200
1B CONTRERAS $4,100
2B TURANG $4,300
SS NUNEZ $2,800
3B SHAW $2,600
OF ANTHONY $5,400
OF CROW-ARMSTRONG $5,000
OF JAHMAI JONES $3,100
BETS
It’s tough to bet early on in the season if you’re doing it responsibly. We should probably wait a few weeks to see where the model is winning and where it isn’t. But where’s the freaking fun in that one?
MLB DW PRO MEMBERS HAVE ACCESS TO A BETTING TOOL ON THE WEB APP THAT COMPARES MY PROJECTIONS WITH THE BETTING LINES TO FIND POSSIBLE EDGES.
No guarantees on that! I cannot honestly say that we have a nailed down system and process that guarantees long-term ROI. But it absolutely points you in the right direction in terms of finding more and less advantageous lines.
I’ll tell you this - I took TB/STL OVER 7 RUNS last night because of that weather forecast. I got it for -108. It’s now at OVER 8 FOR -126. I believe they call that CLOSING LINE VALUE, or something like that. Shout out to me. It’s like you’ve already won. Like, even if I lose that bet, I already won it. Because I got closer to winning it than I would have if I lost it all today. You know what I’m saying!
Some props the projections are loving today:
COLE YOUNG OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI -110 on MGM
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ UNDER 17.5 OUTS -108 on DK
If you want the top home run edges:
MUNETAKA MURAKAMI +725
KYLE MANZARDO +725
PAVIN SMITH +825
BRETT BATY +950
Hopefully we can get into a bit more specific game analysis along the way. But I’m going to wrap this up now so we can get it published with ample time before lock. Good luck out there today, and HAPPY OPENING DAY!