Slate Preview - March 30
Examining the Monday slate!
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There is a ton of rain in the forecast for the next several days after today, so we have to enjoy it tonight.
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There are a handful of games not on the main slate tonight. Let’s take a quick gander.
MIN @ KC (4:11): Simeon Woods Richardson against Kris Bubic! A pretty interesting matchup for fantasy purposes. I’m sure Bubic is owned everywhere, but SWR is someone to keep an eye on. How’s that new splitter looking in 2026? But both guys project for pretty low pitch counts, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some short outings for both guys. Bubic has never had the most reliable command, and SWR might just suck if the splitter isn’t working. And we have some big winds blowing OUT in the first game in the updated Kauffman Stadium (the fences are in, remember!).
TEX @ BAL (6:30): We’ll get to see Jack Leiter for the first time. But it’s not an easy matchup against the Orioles on a 70 degree day with winds blowing out as well. I’d probably sit/fade Leiter.
CWS @ MIA (6:40): Two bad teams. Two bad teams? They’ll probably look bad today with the pitching matchup being Davis Martin vs. Chris Paddack.
PIT @ CIN (6:40): A lot of eyes on this one! It’s Braxton Ashcraft against Chase Burns. And the matchups model does not like the offenses chances today, putting the Pirates #27 of 28 teams and the reds #21. That is based on how the hitters in the projected lineups do against the type of stuff the opposing pitcher has. It makes sense that right-handed pitchers would do pretty well against the Reds. Sal Stewart is the only truly threatening left-handed bat. And Ashcraft sported a 2.96 JA ERA against righties last year. Low scoring game!
WSH @ PHI (6:40): Gross pitching in this one as well! The Phillies are out of dudes already. They’re sending Taijuan Walker to the hill to face Foster Griffin.
Main Slate
Weather
No spots of note. It’s in the upper-70s again in St. Louis with some winds blowing out.
I think, generally, this WINDS thing is going to be way over-played. I know I’ve been talking about it, but I should probably calm down. Weather data is everywhere now, and people always want to feel like they have some edge. But it barely affects the game except in extreme circumstances.
The key point is, there aren’t any potential rainouts to worry about. So we can proceed, once again, with confidence that all of these games will get done.
Implied Runs
One thing stands out right away from a general perspective. The Rays, in small samples against similar pitchers to Kyle Harrison have done very well. The matchups model result for them:
It’s really, really small sample sizes. There aren’t a ton of dudes that sling the ball like Kyle Harrison does, I guess. But this is a high-contact team against lefties. I point that out because of the Rays super low run implication. I’m booking Rays +1.5.
We’ll revisit the Cubs and Dodgers stuff in the stacks section. Let’s talk about some pitching.
Pitchers
Projections:
Top Plays - Tourneys
Edward Cabrera ($8,500) vs. LAA: He’s the top projected arm on the board. The Cubs are a huge favorite against Ryan Johnson and the Angels. It’s tough to trust Cabrera, but he’s pretty clearly a top arm in this one, judging on talent and matchup. Plus, he threw 83 pitches in his final spring outing. So he’s ready to go.