Spring Standout Hitters
A look into a handful of hitters who are having big springs and could be of fantasy impact in 2025
Spring stats should be ignored. I think I have done a good job this spring not talking about guys because of what they’re doing in spring. I do not care what kind of box score stats anybody is putting up.
The proper way to do this, I believe, is to just use the spring stats as a launching pad to get into a player who we were already interested in coming into the season. So let’s do that.
I want to hit a couple of Rockies bats first.
Hunter Goodman
The most interesting thing about Goodman is the catcher eligibility. I’m not sure what the Rockies’ plans are, but it seems likely that Goodman will get a good amount of playing time in the outfield this year. It’s always a boost to have a guy not playing catcher in your catcher eligibility.
He played less than half of a season in the Majors last year and did this:
.190/.228/.417, 29% K%, 4% BB%, 12.8% Brl%, .206 xBA, .281 xwOBA
That’s not very good! He slashed a much better .281/.367/.603 in the minors with eight homers in 139 PAs. We saw the high Brl% in the Majors with a K% that isn’t completely out of control. In my mind, that gives him some upside especially in those games in Coors Field.
He’s just still 25 years old, so there’s reason to think he can still grow as a hitter. We saw him post a 106.3 90th-percentile EV in the Majors last year with a max of 114.7. The raw power is there.
What we need to see are improvements in strikeouts and some launch angle touch-ups as well. He did not have a huge ground ball issue (39% GB%), but the sweet spot rate was middling at 34% and the xBA being at .206 shows you that he was not hitting balls very effectively.
This spring, he’s posted a low 14% K% with an 83% Contact% in 42 PAs. If nothing else, that’s a good start.
The leagues I’d target Goodman, for now, would probably just be the two catcher leagues where you can slide him into your C2 spot and see what you have. I really doubt he’ll be able to put up a 12-team worthy season going in and out of Coors Field with this poor of a track record going in, but there is upside for a 20+ homer season with catcher eligibility, and that makes him worthy of some attention right now.
Zac Veen
We have yet to see Veen in the Majors. But this seems like the year. He might even make the team out of camp. The main part of Veen’s game is the stolen base.
Over these last four seasons in the minors, he has a 40% stolen base attempt rate, a huge number, and he’s swiped 132 bases in 1,500 PAs. That’s about a 50-steal pace over a full season.
Can he hack it in the Majors? It does not seem like he hits the ball very hard (max EV of 106 last year), and he has a career HR pace below the league average. But if he gets into the lineup every day and keeps the K% under 26% or so with a decent line drive rate and walk rate, he’ll steal enough bases to matter.
He’s a top-ten prospect for the Rockies. My model has him for a 26% K%, a 9% BB%, and a 41% SB Attempt% in the Majors. If that’s true, he’ll be a nice steals source in a deeper fantasy league. He’s worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t expect much more other than the results of his speed.
Joey Ortiz
Ortiz was one of my main targets in NFBC drafts this spring. I’m not sure you need to worry about him in a ten-team league, but it’s not a crazy thing to consider, either. He didn’t have a great go of it in his first season with the Brewers last year:
511 PA, .239/.329/.398, 11 HR, 11 SB
But it was just his real look at Major League pitching, so we should consider 2025 his true proving ground.
The thing I like the most about Ortiz is the underlying skills. He hits the ball hard enough (104.6 EV90) for me to believe that he can be a 20-homer guy, and the foot speed is there as well. I think he’s very likely to improve on his 11 homer, 11 steal season last year, and there’s an outside shot at a 20-20 season if he can really put things together.
He hit a few too many balls on the ground last year (49% GB%) and showed just a 21% FB%. That’s very low (league average = 26%). The contact rate was great (83%), so if he can turn a few of those GB% points into line drives or fly balls, you’re going to see improvements in the batting average and slugging percentage.
This spring, he’s slashing a huge .412/.524/.853 with two homers and a 17% K%. He’s a patient hitter,r and he’s matched his 11% BB% from last year so far this spring.
I don’t think there’s a crazy high ceiling with Ortiz. But the spring performance has to have Milwaukee feeling pretty good about him being their everyday shortstop, and he feels like a very safe floor infielder to me. I think he’ll cruise to a 15-homer, 12-steal season. If he can add a .250 batting average to that, he’ll be worthwhile in most leagues. The upside is that he lifts more balls makes overall improvements, and flirts with a 20-20-.270 season.
Cam Smith
I wrote about him last weekend, but he continues to make his case to make the Astros team out of camp. He was a first-round pick last year, and the Astros got him back in the Kyle Tucker trade. This spring:
.419/.500/.871, 4 HR, 22% K%, 14% BB%
He played 32 games in the Cubs farm system last year and showed a 179 wRC+. There has been no level so far where Smith did not mash the ball.
It’s obviously a completely different story in regular season Major League games. He has not faced many Major League pitchers in his life, so there is a serious question about how long it will take him to adjust to that.
He appears to be a patient hitter. That’s a good thing to see; it could help him not give away too many PAs in the Majors. Pitchers will have to throw him some strikes. His swing rate was 45% in the minors last year and 39% so far this spring.
There are no guarantees, but if you’re fishing for offensive upside, Smith is one of the primary targets to go after right now. If he doesn’t make the team out of camp, I’d hesitate to use a bench spot on him, but in a league with a lot of bench spots or a situation where you have a minor league stash spot, it makes a lot of sense.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on Smith. He could very well join Matt Shaw as the other top hitting prospect to be in the Opening Day lineup.
Kristian Campbell
He is not having a very good spring (.163/.275/.209). That doesn’t matter much to me, but maybe it’s enough for the Red Sox to send him to AAA to start the year. But he’s still in big league camp right now, so he’s made it through a few waves of cuts. That’s a good thing.
With Rafael Devers resigning himself to being the DH, there’s a clear opening at 2B. The Red Sox sent down Vaughn Grissom, so it’s looking likely that Campbell will make the team.
Campbell certainly has the minor league resume to justify a shot at the Majors. Last year, he posted a 180 wRC+ in the minors with a .330 average and a huge .997 OPS.
The K% was a tick under 20%, and he walked a ton (14% BB%).
I expect negative movement on both of those fronts once he starts seeing Major League pitching. But it’s reasonable to think he could be a 24% K% and 10% BB% guy in the Majors right away (that’s what my model projects, in fact).
If he makes the team, I’d call him a must-add just to see what we have. What I’m not going to do in a redraft league is hold these rookies for several weeks if they’re showing no signs of life. The fantasy season isn’t that long. I’d maybe give him a 2-3 week grace period in a 10 or 12-team league before moving on to somebody else. In a deeper league, it makes sense to give these guys longer leashes. There’s something like a 100 PA adjustment period needed for these guys, so if he can get through that and then start hitting, it will be worth the wait in those kinds of deep leagues.
Victor Scott
Scott was the Opening Day starter for the Cardinals last year but could not keep the job. He slashed just .179/.219/.283 in his Major League time (155 PA) with two homers and five steals. But he’s looking much improved this spring with a .359/.457/.692 slash line and three homers in 46 PAs. It’s also a positive sign to see the 17% K% and 15% BB%.
His main issue in the Majors last year was a spiked K% (27%) and a depressed BB% (4%). With him being a speed guy, you’d like him to take walks so he can get some of those extra SB opportunities. He does not have the raw power that will have Major League pitchers shying away from him, so I wouldn’t expect much of a walk rate for him in 2025, but yeah, I think he can do better than 4% (that’s incredibly low).
The other big problem for him was the impact of his batted balls. He was basically just tapping the ball out there, and that turned into a low .233 BABIP.
I do not think there’s any real shot of a double-digit homer season for Scott. The max EV is about 107, and that’s very low. But the three homers so far this spring show you that it’s something he can do.
I think Scott is going to have to get the K% into the low-twenties and the walk rate above 6% to matter in fantasy. But if he can do that, he’ll be among the league leaders in steals. Remember, this guy swiped 95 bags in 2023.