Starting Pitcher Investigation
Diving into the numbers on some interesting starting pitchers for fantasy baseball consideration
Little change up from your boy today! I’m going back into old school pitcher investigation. This is far from the best thing I do, but here you go - analysis on four SPs of [fantasy] interest.
JT Ginn, Athletics
I sort of wish my last name was Ginn.
His name came up to me when I ran a little dashboard query about the combination of strikeouts and ground balls. I love a pitcher who can get a strikeout and a ground ball. Those are two great ways to get a batter out. Not much bad can happen to you if one of those things is happening.
So I looked for SPs with
→ K% > 25%
→ GB% > 50%
And most of the results were unsurprising
Logan Webb: 26.9% K%, 58% GB%
Paul Skenes: 25.5% K%, 50.6% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 30.5% K%, 60% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi: 27.7% K%, 51% GB%
Max Meyer: 26.4% K5, 52% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez: 28.5% K%, 56% GB%
Logan Gilbert: 37.6% K%, 52% GB%
That’s the full list when you require at least six starts. But when you let the guys in who have four starts:
J.T. Ginn: 27.2% K%, 53% GB%
Michael Soroka: 27.4% K%, 55% GB%
Soroka deserves some attention as well, but let’s check on Ginn first.
He has made seven starts between AAA and MLB this year, and has quite an impressive combined 27.3% K-BB%.
To split it between levels:
MLB: 27.2% K%, 7.4% BB%, 5.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 3.1 HR/9
AAA: 47.1% K%, 7.8% BB%, 1.26 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.0 HR/9
So the Major Leaguers have been able to take him deep quite a bit. But between those homers, the K-BB% stuff has been great - even at the highest level.
Let’s take a peek at his pitch mix. Majors:
AAA:
He attacks righties and lefties differently, so let’s take a look at that.
Pitch……… RHB ……… LHB
SI … 60% … 49%
SL … 32% … 17%
CH … 6% … 11%
FF … 2% … 0%
FC … 1% … 23%
So he’s sinker + slider to righties and then sinker + cutter + slider + changeup to lefties. How has that worked out so far in the Majors:
→ vs. RHB: 34% K%, 4.5% BB%, 11.4% SwStr%, .327 xwOBA
→ vs. LHB: 19% K%, 11% BB%, 6.3% SwStr%, .439 xwOBA
We’re talking about all of 142 pitches thrown to lefties and 193 to righties, so the numbers certainly haven’t stabilized yet.
Since he’s using a sinker at least half of the time to both sides of the plate, I have trouble believing in the guy as a true 25%+ K% guy, but it’s also worth nothing that he got a ton of whiffs with the sinker in the minors. And the pitch does pass the eye test, for whatever that’s worth. But that’s probably worth nothing because I don’t even believe in the eye test. But here’s a test for you eyes
I’m still an amateur at interpreting pitch movement dat, but his vertical movement on it looks a lot like Clay Holmes, Jose Soriano, Dustin May, and Michael King. I assume that’s a good thing! And the pitch checks in with a 111 Stuff+. I think that’s enough to say that it’s a good sinker.
And we don’t need a ton of whiffs for a sinker, anyways. As long as it stays on the ground and gets a whiff here and there (say 6-8% SwStr%), we’re okay.
And Ginn’s slider has been great, and he has the cutter and changeup to deal with lefties. So there are a lot of good signs here.
Time will tell. His 9.3% SwStr% does not match at all with the 27% K%, but I still can’t really ignore the guy because of the strong history of K-BB% and the high ground ball rate. And certainly the home runs will slow down. He’s given up an unsustainably high 15.7% Brl% and a looney tunes 83% HR/FB%. With the kind of GB% he has, you’d expect like a 6-8% Brl%, so the damage will slow down in a hurry. If he can keep up say a 24-25% K% with a 50%+ GB%, I think he could pitch his way into 12-team league consideration.
Michael Soroka, Washington Nationals
Soroka was once upon a time a strong pitching prospect for the Braves. That was back in BC (before covid). But here is, taking the ball for the Nationals and putting up some pretty interesting numbers.
→ 4 GS, 19 IP, 27.4% K%, 4.8% BB%, 5.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Another very poor ERA, but again, he’s given up an inordinate number of home runs (1.8 HR/9, 29% HR/FB). Someone he’s given up more home runs (4) than barrels (2), so hitters have sneaked a few cheap ones on him.
But let’s get into the pitch mix. Overall:
Not a convicing SwStr% at 10.5%.But a decent mark on the four-seamer (10.8%), and decent as well on the slurve (13.2%). The key numbers are the three to the right of SwStr%. A 52% Strike% is great a 31% Ball% is great, and a 55% GB% is great. They’re all great.
And it’s not shocking to see this. Soroka’s calling card (remember calling cards?) was always command. But the 94.3mph velo is up from his prior life. So this is pretty interesting stuff!
vs. RHB:
You can see the very small sample size here. He’s thrown just 108 pitches to righties. But so far, he’s been very, very tough on them. A 57% Strike% is super-elite, and the 14.8% SwStr% is extremely good as well. The four-seamer has been great on those 42 pitches. But I can’t say we can really judge much of anything on that kind of sample.
vs. LHB:
So he bails on the sinker and throws more four-seamers, slurves, and changeups to lefties. And it hasn’t been nearly the same amount of success with just an 8.3% SwStr% and a 49% Strike% to them. And those lefties are the ones with all four homers.
What you have with Soroka is a guy who throws a ton of strikes and mostly keeps the ball on the ground. That kind of profile usually turns into a competitive WHIP. What I don’t really believe in is Soroka having more than 20-22% K%, and I think that will make the overall numbers well short of something you’re dying to have on your fantasy team.
For right now, he seems like a guy you can stream in against right-hand heavy lineups. And there’s no doubt that he’s been very unlucky this year. I would not expect this kind of pitch mix to turn into a high HR/9 like we’ve seen so far. Better times ahead for Soroka, and he might even throw up a couple of gems along the way if he’s pounding the zone with strikes and generating a low BABIP.
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
There are fewer than 30 starting pitchers who have made 15+ starts in the Majors since last year with at least a 19% K-BB%. And Matt Boyd is one of them. Since returning to the Majors last year:
→ 2.87 ERA
→ 1.19 WHIP
→ 26.1% K%
→ 6.8% BB%
He’s sneaky good bro! And he has that SwStr% + Ball% magic formula qualifier thing going on. Or at least he nearly does. It depends on where the Ball% wants to round to when I filter. He’s right on the both limits at at 13.0% SwStr% and 34% Ball%
The four-seamer has earned a ton of strikes at 56%, and the changeup is very, very tough with a 20.3% SwStr% and a .273 xwOBA.
He has struck out righties 25% of the time and lefties 24% of the time. He’s given up seven homers, all to righties, but lefties have the higher xwOBA against him at .340 (righties at a very low .290). Those numbers are a bit goofy. You wouldn’t expect a higher xwOBA from the side of the plate that hasn’t homered. But he’s given up a .419 BABIP to lefties while posting a really strong 14.8% SwStr%, so I think he can improve on that xwOBA.
Anyways. The story with Boyd is pretty simple. He’s long been a strong K-BB% pitcher. The good stretches come when he’s not giving up homers. And there have been many times when he has given up a ton of homers. As a guy who features mostly four-seamers and a lot of sliders, he gives up a lot of fly balls (32% this year). That’s going to turn into homers. So far this year, it hasn’t been a huge issue at a 1.1 HR/9. We could see the warmer weather costing him a few more homers, but his HR/FB is 16% right now, a touch above the league average.
I just think Boyd is solid. And he’s been underrated for a long time. He’s approaching a full year now with full health, and I do think the guy is under-owned at 55%.
Griffin Canning, New York Mets
Quickly on Canning. The improvements are real. He’s not blowing me away in any given category, but there’s really no problems
→ K%: 23%
→ BB%: 8.6%
→ SwStr%: 12.9%
→ Ball%: 35.6%
→ WHIP+: 1.77
→ BABIP: .295
→ xwOBA: .315
→ GB%: 56%
He hasn’t committed to hiding the four-seamer. It’s still used 35% of the time, and it’s a bad pitch still (48% Strike%, 41% Ball%, 7.9% SwStr%), but he’s been able to mostly limit the damage so far (.432 SLG).
If he can get away with the four-seamer, the rest of his stuff is pretty strong. HIs slider has a high 18.2% SwStr% with a 32% Ball%. Those are great marks for a slider. The changeup also gets whiffs (14.7%) and it’s been very hard to lift in the air (63% GB%). He has at least a 48% GB% on his three main pitches, and that, I think, is the main point.
If Canning can just limit damage, keep the ball in the yard, and throw strikes, he’ll have a good season with the Mets lineup behind him. I don’t think he’s anything great, and I could see it going south if the high GB% doesn’t continue, but he does seem to have stepped into being a decent SP4 or SP5 for fantasy teams out there.