Starts & Sits Advice :: 4/30-5/1
Looking at today's and tomorrow's SP projections to help you make daily lineup and streamer decisions.
It might be a mistake giving myself another thing to do every day (or maybe every other day), but this is a high-demand post that I haven’t done. And since I have weekly projections now where I have a good projection for tomorrow as well as today, I was able to automate the core of it.
So here we go, I guess. I’ll try to provide my own commentary most of the time, but I doubt I’ll be able to pull that off every time. I also might scrap this altogether, or just sling it into the Daily Notes as part of the big list of automation. We’ll see where it goes.
I also do realize that this is pretty much a copy of what Nick Pollack does at PitcherList.
It’s also a lot like this article/sheet I used to write/maintain at RotoBaller. The Google Sheet they’re using there is actually still my own making, they’ve just been using the template since I left last summer.
So I am somewhat copying Nick, I am somewhat copying RotoBaller, and I am somewhat copying myself. But I think this is obvious enough to not qualify as anything near intellectual property or even be non-legally suspect. But if Pollack wants me to knock it tf off I won’t fight him about it. I’m sure he’ll never even see this anyways. But if he does - sup Nick?
Let’s have our first go at it. Shoutout to Producer Lee for whipping up the graphic in like 15 minutes’ notice, even after I emasculated him today by beating his mile time.
As per the usual arrangement, this will be free for the first few and then paywalled afterwards. I’m not saying this article alone is worth money, since it’s free (and better) elsewhere, but it does spit out my entire pitching projections and I don’t want to give those away for free since the projection model is one of the main sellers here.
Today :: 2024-04-30
Must Starts
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. TB (19.49 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. ARI (18.23 Projected Fantasy Points)
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. OAK (17.39 Projected Fantasy Points)
Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) vs. SEA (17.24 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. ATL (16.95 Projected Fantasy Points)
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. CIN (16.25 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cole Ragans (KC) vs. TOR (15.56 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. BAL (14.74 Projected Fantasy Points)
Logan Webb (SF) vs. BOS (14.58 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
Logan Webb always be under-projecting. That’s what happens when you depend on soft contact so much, which most people aren’t able to actually control, but obviously Webb is an anomaly and should be started every time. I need some kind of anomaly-control in my model.
Leaning Start
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. CLE (13.96 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. CHC (14.6 Projected Fantasy Points)
Spencer Turnbull (PHI) vs. LAA (14.59 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kyle Gibson (STL) vs. DET (14.11 Projected Fantasy Points)
Tyler Alexander (TB) vs. MIL (13.98 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. KC (12.91 Projected Fantasy Points)
MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs. TEX (11.9 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments:
I really don’t like Verlander, but I can’t completely deny him at this point, and he does have two nice starts under his belt right out of the gate - what an impressive athlete.
Manaea projects better than Webb in this matchup, which is loony, but he does have the strikeout going - and my fantasy point projection here is using the DraftKings scoring system which really leans into strikeouts. I also just remembered that the weekly projections aren’t currently baking in the WIN bonus, which it should be - but my daily model utilizes the betting lines to project that, and I don’t have those for games out in the future… so that’s where some manual changes will be needed. The projected fantasy points aren’t the greatest here right now, but the groupings are sound.
I don’t really believe in the Turnbull resurgence, and that’s mostly because of the long history of meh with him and his 10.4% SwStr% / 45.6% Strike% this year. Despite that he’s managed a beautiful 19% K-BB%. The .175 BABIP and 53 PA/HR have helped and I don’t expect any of this stuff to maintain, but he gets a fine matchup with the Angels so you can give him one more tug if you want - he’s probably going to lose his job soon to Taijuan Walker - another bad pitcher.
A similarly high surprisingly decent projection on Kyle Gibson, but the Tigers are a great team to attack - hitting just .220/.299/.351 against right-handed pitching this year.
Leaning Sit
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. PHI (12.68 Projected Fantasy Points)
Sixto Sanchez (MIA) vs. COL (12.32 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jordan Montgomery (ARI) vs. LAD (12.1 Projected Fantasy Points)
Alex Wood (OAK) vs. PIT (11.93 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ryan Feltner (COL) vs. MIA (11.81 Projected Fantasy Points)
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. CWS (11.8 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. WSH (11.49 Projected Fantasy Points)
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. NYY (11.38 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
Obviously league size matters a lot here. In a 15-team league, these are probably all starts. In a 10-team league, they’re probably all sits. I’m kind of tuning this toward a 12-team league where like 80-90 SPs are rostered.
I’m starting Feltner this week even though I probably shouldn’t #yolo.
I’m also starting Woods-Richardson even though I probably shouldn’t. The White Sox matchup is just too good, but his 10.3% SwStr% is pretty bad thus far. It could go badly, even against Chicago.
Sit
Landon Knack (LAD) vs. ARI (10.81 Projected Fantasy Points)
Javier Assad (CHC) vs. NYM (10.8 Projected Fantasy Points)
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. CLE (10.51 Projected Fantasy Points)
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs. SD (9.9 Projected Fantasy Points)
Matt Manning (DET) vs. STL (9.48 Projected Fantasy Points)
Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs. SF (9.32 Projected Fantasy Points)
Michael Soroka (CWS) vs. MIN (8.85 Projected Fantasy Points)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. HOU (7.31 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
Crazy to see Hunter Brown here but that’s what you deserve with a 5.4% K-BB%.
Tomorrow :: 2024-05-01
Must Starts
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. LAA (20.02 Projected Fantasy Points)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs. SEA (18.51 Projected Fantasy Points)
Zach Eflin (TB) vs. MIL (18.36 Projected Fantasy Points)
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs. NYY (15.62 Projected Fantasy Points)
Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. CIN (15.46 Projected Fantasy Points)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. NYM (14.41 Projected Fantasy Points)
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. CWS (13.73 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
The model still isn’t hot enough on Shota Imanaga and it’s taking the cautious approach. I think that’s the right way to this early on, but you’re obviously starting Imanaga in any matchup right now.
Leaning Start
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. LAD (12.49 Projected Fantasy Points)
Ross Stripling (OAK) vs. PIT (13.36 Projected Fantasy Points)
Jose Butto (NYM) vs. CHC (13.3 Projected Fantasy Points)
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. KC (13.13 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. SF (12.95 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
I can get the temptation to sit Gallen against the Dodgers given … well, the Dodgers and Gallen’s slow start. Gallen’s career against LAD: 41.1 IP, 19 ER (4.14 ERA), 48 SO, 14 BB, 27.7% K%, 8.1% BB%. So that’s a starter. Start him, just don’t watch the game.
Leaning Sit
Colin Rea (MIL) vs. TB (13.24 Projected Fantasy Points)
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs. DET (13.86 Projected Fantasy Points)
Luis Gil (NYY) vs. BAL (14.53 Projected Fantasy Points)
Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. COL (15.67 Projected Fantasy Points)
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs. PHI (12.43 Projected Fantasy Points)
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. WSH (12.18 Projected Fantasy Points)
Kenta Maeda (DET) vs. STL (11.92 Projected Fantasy Points)
Quinn Priester (PIT) vs. OAK (11.65 Projected Fantasy Points)
Seth Lugo (KC) vs. TOR (11.37 Projected Fantasy Points)
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs. ATL (11.16 Projected Fantasy Points)
Comments
The “Screw It” guys here are Luis Gil and Quinn Priester, meaning that there’s so much downside there that it’s probably not wise, but the upside is also interesting enough to consider. Gil could ruin your entire life against the Orioles, but any time you have a 32%+ K% pitcher you have big upside - and the strikeouts should be there no matter what. As for Priester, he looked great last time out, is much improved this year, and this matchup in Oakland is as good as it gets.
Braxton Garrett would be a start if this weren’t his first time back. In his rehab he threw 66, 86, and 59 pitches in that order - so you’d figure he’d be around 70-75 pitches most likely, and it’s his season debut so I’d probably leave him on the IL for the week, if you haven’t already.
Crazy to have Seth Lugo as a sit given his ERA is like negative four right now, but his K% is 15%.
Sit
Chris Flexen (CWS) vs. MIN (10.54 Projected Fantasy Points)
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) vs. SD (10.13 Projected Fantasy Points)
Trevor Williams (WSH) vs. TEX (9.99 Projected Fantasy Points)
Daulton Jefferies (SF) vs. BOS (9.34 Projected Fantasy Points)
Dakota Hudson (COL) vs. MIA (9.2 Projected Fantasy Points)
Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs. HOU (8.87 Projected Fantasy Points)
That’s it, and it was totally free. If this continues, it will come out every other day, I guess…
Let me know if you’d start or sit the format - advice/suggestions/criticisms/tellmetogoeffmyself are always welcome!
I like it. I vote start!
It's a quick read and more info is always better. I like it!