Starts & Sits June 29 - July 1
A look ahead for planning your starts & sits
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As I write this on a lovely, gloomy Sunday morning, heading back to little old Delaware. I realize my bold take from last week may not come to fruition. I’m leaving you with a cliff hanger too, if you didn’t read last Wednesday’s post, go check it out and see how I did, and you’ll see my probably wrong bold take. Unless something wild happens today.
We went to the Orioles game last night and watched them give another game away. If they have any ambition to make the playoffs, it starts with the top of the lineup. They have sucked. This team frustrates me in new ways every day. I digress. Let’s look at this upcoming week’s starting pitchers, also happy short work week!
LEGEND
Anchor Arms - General consensus is they are going to dominate the matchup.
Send it Guys - Expect a solid performance. Thanks to either a favorable matchup or just a hot hand.
Danger Zone - Could be an awesome start with a solid amount of upside, but it’s not a comfortable matchup.
Desperation Station - A super unfavorable matchup, but you are desperate for points, so you start them anyway.
Hard Pass - Dudes I don’t have any interest in starting.
Monday June 29th
ANCHOR ARMS
George Kirby vs LAA - Maybe Kirby can throw a no-no at home. Projections love the spot.
Jacob DeGrom @ Cleveland - Not ideal on the road, but he’s still that guy.
Parker Messick vs Texas - Last two starts resulted in a combined 19 strikeouts. Needs to navigate a few solid RHB in the Texas lineup (Langford, Burger, Foscue)
Braxton Ashcraft @ Philadelphia - Check out L/R splits. Philly's lineup is solid, Braxton will have his work cut out for him, but he’s been on fire as well, so it’ll be a great game to watch.
SEND IT GUYS
Ryan Weathers vs Detroit - Just faced these guys last Wednesday, which isn’t ideal. He actually did this once already this year with Baltimore; he proceeded to have a better performance in his second start. I honestly think that is more on the O’s poor game planning. No bias.
Nolan McLean @ Toronto - Strikeouts are never an issue for this guy, but walks are. He’s reigned those in over the past couple of starts. Let’s see if it can continue. Blue Jays are notorious for grinding out AB’s.
Ranger Suarez vs Washington - Dude is on a heater right now. Double digit whiffs in his last seven starts.
Robert Gasser vs Cincinnati
DANGER ZONE
Shota Imanaga vs San Diego - I almost feel like bumping him down because of the SD offense recently, but we’ll trust the projections here
SD offense vs LHP Casey Mize @ NYY - Mize faced the Bronx Bombers last week, giving up eight hits and four runs. Although he had a 17.5% SwStr%. Projections give him a decent chance.
Shane Baz vs CWS - As long as he can be in the zone, he’s going to have a decent shot.
Sean Burke @ Baltimore
DESPERATION STATION
Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh - I don’t really feel comfortable putting him anywhere; he’s shown the ability to induce soft contact. Not consistently, though. Pitt bats are legit.
Zebby Matthews @ Houston
Nick Lodolo @ Milwaukee - Hasn’t made it deep into games the last few times out, not generating a lot of whiffs.
Gage Jump vs LAD - Mr.Jump has been great recently, the Dodgers aren’t quite as good vs LHP, but it’s still a scary lineup for a rookie SP. I don’t think he’s a Hard Pass, though.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs San Francisco - He’s turned out back-to-back 20+ point DK starts. Projections, and I don’t expect this to continue. Walking 11 in three starts don’t exactly lead to great things. He can stay as a desperate option for now, but I don’t think he’ll be here much longer.
Trey Yesavage vs Mets - A three-pitch mix doesn’t give you many options to lean on. Mets are buns, so it shouldn’t matter. Doesn’t project very well.
HARD PASS
Miles Mikolas @ Boston
Tyler Mahle @ Arizona - Second start back from IL, wasn’t terrible in his return.
Griffin Canning vs CHC
Peter Lambert vs Minnesota - Gives up too many flyballs.
Sean Sullivan vs Miami - Walked five out against Boston last start, but he did generate 10 whiffs. Someone to keep an eye on for the future.
Sandy Alcantara @ Colorado - Over 100+ pitches last three times out. In Colorado, I’ll pass.
Ryan Johnson @ Seattle - Nice park, and Johnson wasn’t bad last time out. Monitor the situation.
Eric Lauer @ Athletics
Tuesday June 30th
ANCHOR ARMS
Tarik Skubal @ NYY - I can’t put this guy anywhere else; he’ll bounce back (at some point). Good spot against the Yanks.
Cristopher Sanchez vs Pittsburgh
Joe Ryan @ Houston
Cam Schlitter vs Detroit - Another double-up start.
Bryce Miller vs LAA - In Seattle AND against the Angels. He’s a lock as an Anchor Arm.
SEND IT GUYS
Eury Perez @ Colorado - Taking a chance here in the Rocky Mountains, but the projections like it, so we’ll put ‘em here.
Griffin Jax @ Kansas City - We had him here last week when he went against KC, had a great start. Run it back.
Connelly Early vs Washington
Kevin Gausman vs NYM - Blown up two starts in a row. Still at home. Projections still like him here.
Sean Manaea @ Toronto - Fantastic vs LHB. Expect Toronto to stack RHB. If they do, I’d bump him down to DANGER ZONE.
DANGER ZONE
Jose Soriano @ Seattle - He definitely hasn’t been as good as he was to start the year. Projections, and I think it’s a decent spot for him.
Cade Cavali @ Boston
MacKenzie Gore @ Cleveland - Scary away from home, but it’s against the JRAM-less Guardians. Full send. Considering moving him up a tier.
Brandon Sproat vs Cincinnati - Faced Cincy his last time out with 10 K’s.
Landon Roupp @ Arizona - Gets a decent amount of whiffs and a 50% groundball rate to go along with it the past two months.
DESPERATION STATION
Justin Wrobelski @ Athletics - Been very lucky this season.
Noah Cameron vs Tampa Bay - Having a tough time getting him here, but projections like it, so we’ll ride with it. Gave up five runs in Tampa last time out.
Trey Gibson vs CWS - Pitch count was only at 66 last time out, but his Death Ball was great again.
Tanner Bibee vs Texas - Pretty mid, but you know what you’re going to get with him.
Grant Holmes vs St. Louis - Has been meh. I wouldn’t stream against the Cards. We’ll leave him here since projections have a decent grade.
HARD PASS
Mike Burrows vs Minnesota - Nahhh
Brandon Pfaadt vs San Francisco - First start back from the minors.
Matthew Liberatore @ Atlanta - Buddy fooled us for a few starts.
Bubba Chandler @ Philadelphia - Man, I wish this guy would just be a stud. He doesn’t get a lot of swing-and-miss or groundballs. Recipe for disaster. Projections don’t love him either. Hasn’t thrown a lot of pitches in the last few starts. I’m sure Jon has thoughts about Bubba as well.
German Marquez @ CHC
Javier Assad @ San Francisco - Four home runs allowed in last two starts.
Erick Fedde @ Baltimore
Jeffery Springs vs LAD - Flyball guy in Sacramento vs the Dodgers. LOL.
Rhett Lowder @ Milwaukee - A lot of hard contact and bad command.
Kyle Freeland vs Miami
Wednesday July 1st
ANCHOR ARMS
Zack Wheeler vs Pittsburgh
Paul Skenes @ Philadelphia - Phillies ML mortal mega lock. IYKYK.
Shohei Ohtani @ Athletics - Even in Sacramento, I think Ohtani will make out fine. As long as Dalton Rushing isn’t catching.
Nathan Eovaldi @ Cleveland - Just struck out nine Blue Jays. He’s on a nice run.
SEND IT GUYS
Max Meyer @ Colorado - His fastball already sucks, so he’ll just throw his breaking balls a ton.
Payton Tolle @ Washington - #7 ranked SP of the day according to projections.
Ian Seymour @ Kansas City - Love this spot.
Tatsuyi Imai vs Minnesota - Faced them in late May; he’s a hot hand right now.
Trevor Rogers vs CWS - Back-to-back great starts. His fastball looked very deceptive Friday night. Almost 29% SwStr% is nuts.
Rogers pitch mix from Friday, 6/26 Start vs WSH Shane Dorhan vs Cincinnati - Deep pitch mix at home.
Joey Cantillo vs Texas - Going against the projections here a bit, they have him probably in the Danger Zone. He’s got a 21.7% K-BB% in June, which, yes, is a small sample, but he’s been great. He made an arsenal change to throw his curveball way more, and it’s paid off. His fastball still sucks, but if he can leverage his curveball against it, that keeps batters off balance.
DANGER ZONE
Matthew Boyd vs San Diego - Machado and Tatis are getting hot, could be a tough matchup for Boyd. Second start back on IL.
Will Warren vs Detroit - He’s really taken a step back in the last month and a half. A 4.7% K-BB% is less than ideal. If projections didn’t like it so much, I’d probably have him in the Desperation Station.
Andrew Alvarez @ Boston - If the walks aren’t an issue, he will make out fine.
JT Ginn vs LAD - He’s been good, let him ride.
Freddy Peralta @ Toronto - Rebounded nicely last outing, let’s see if he can do it again.
DESPERATION STATION
Trevor McDonald @ Arizona - I think he’s actually a hard pass. He’s pretty much lost all of the good qualities he had going for him. BB% has doubled to 12% (from May to June). Maybe you start him since Arizona’s offense has been so meh, but I would steer away.
Taj Bradley @ Houston - Walks are still an issue, but he’s still getting a good amount of swing and misses.
Walker Buehler @ CHC - Been usable recently, due to an uptick in cutter usage. Probably worth a look in deep leagues.
Noah Schultz @ Baltimore - First game off IL, Baltimore sucks vs LHP.
Andrew Abbott @ Milwaukee - Same way as Manaea. Great vs LHB, but righties can hit him hard. Check the lineup before starting.
HARD PASS
Max Scherzer vs NYM - #washed. Although he did get 13 whiffs against the Phillies through 3.3 IP. That’s honestly pretty impressive, getting that much swing and miss while allowing five runs.
Zac Gallen vs San Francisco
Troy Melton @ NYY - Projections don’t love this spot, I agree.
Michael McGreevy @ Atlanta
Martin Perez vs St. Louis - He’s been decent this year. The Cards have a sub .700 OPS against LHP. Don’t expect many strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano vs Miami
Seth Lugo vs Tampa Bay - The Devil Rays shelled him last time out. Like I said last week, he’s not missing many bats
Hope you guys are enjoying these write-ups as much as I am. Feel free to comment any suggestions.