I start these posts really without any idea where they’ll go. But I do think it’s useful to just look at a category like stolen bases in isolation. Not talking about players, but league-wide trends and some other points about distributions and whatnot.
Let’s look at total steals by year, dating back to 2021:
→ 2021: 2,213
→ 2022: 2,487
→ 2023: 3,495
→ 2024: 3,619
→ 2025: 3,435
The big rule changes hit for the 2023 season. We saw steals shoot upward immediately after that, and they’ve been pretty stable up around the 1.9% SB/PA rate since then.
That changed the fantasy game without really changing it (how’s that for some #logic). Steals were up, but mostly they went up pretty evenly. I doubt you felt the need to change your strategy very much over the last three seasons.
Let’s look at the number of players to clear some thresholds over these last five seasons.
Let’s look at the percentage change for those changes:
That second row is the one to keep an eye on. After the rules changed, we saw:
→ 75% more players steal at least 15 bags
→ 113% more players steal at least 25 bags
→ 200% more players steal at least 30 bags
→ 350% more players steal at least 35 bags
→ 500% more players steal at least 40 bags
The number of players going for 40+ bags is always small, so the percentages can bloat because of that low volume.
The big thing to note, in my opinion, is that it’s really easy to steal 20 bags now. 20 is the new 10.
Another lesson learned (or reinforced) in 2025 is that stealing bases is a will-first stat. Unlike almost any other stat in sports, this one is largely about whether or not the hitter wants to do it. I’m guessing every hitter would love to hit a home run every time they come to the plate. But the will doesn’t help all that much. With steals, it’s totally different.
We saw Juan Soto steal 38 bags in 2025. His previous career high was 12. Josh Naylor swiped 30 after never stealing more than ten before. They just decided to do it. And that’s the kind of stuff you don’t know until you’re into the season.
Let’s look at some of the biggest stolen base rate changes from 2024 to 2025. I’m using SB per 600 PAs for this.
I spy a few different prototypes here.
The “I’m Finally Healthy” Type: Oneil Cruz and Royce Lewis fit this, and probably a few others. They were not healthy enough (or even allowed) to run in 2024, but with health in 2025, that part of their game came back.
The “I Have To Be Good At Something” Type: Maybe it’s harsh, but I think this is what you see from Evan Carter, Ezequiel Duran, Victor Scott, Jake Meyers, and others. Those were borderline 26-man roster guys, and maybe they were trying to keep their spot by adding some extra bases to their team’s tally.
The Surprise Vets: It’s the Soto/Naylor stuff again. I don’t know what motivated those guys. In Soto’s case, it was probably a late-season push to be a member of the 40-40 club. We’ve seen that before. He was running at a higher rate right from the beginning, but was on pace for around 20 steals at the midway point rather than the 38 he ended up with.
Let’s look at some of the biggest drops:
The reverse of the points made above are true in this case. Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna were coming back from injury and didn’t want to push it on the bases. Mike Trout and Christian Yelich were likely playing it safe so they could try to stay on the field. Shohei Ohtani did the Soto thing in 2024 while chasing the 50/50 club, so it was inevitable that things would change in 2025.
You can check that full data file out here.
I don’t think any recalibration of the SB strategy for next year is needed. In my mind, there are two basic ways to attack it.
Pile up a bunch of guys who can steal 20+ bags
Grab a specialist or two
The first method basically just means filtering out some guys you might otherwise like. I can give you a quick list of those types by filtering to hitters with 5+ roto value points, but a negative in the steals category.
The Eugenio Suarez type, basically. He had a really nice season with all those homers and RBI, but his four steals were a drain on your team while he was sitting in one of those roster spots all season.
I’m not saying you can’t draft a Suarez, but you probably can’t draft more than one or two of them if you aren’t going the way of the specialist.
And that’s the second method, the specialist. There’s a “big three” in this regard. It’s Jose Caballero, Chandler Simpson, and Xavier Edwards.
Caballero earned 99% of his standard roto value with the stolen base. He did nothing else of use. But he was still a 5.4-value player. That’s similar to Willy Adames. I mean, those two players were basically the same value in standard roto last year, and Adames hit 30 bombs!
Maybe this is the way to go. I would imagine that Caballero and Simpson found the waiver wire in 90%+ of standard (or even standardish) leagues last year. They can end up being pretty undervalued because of the lack of production in anything but steals. But when those two are going 150%+ of the field in a given month in steals, they are super valuable to your team.
What I’m saying is that you can either get a bunch of steals from a small number of players, or a smaller number of steals from a larger number of players. Groundbreaking mathematical investigation here, I know.
Is there an action point here? No! But that’s okay, because it’s only October 21st. Most of you won’t even consider drafting a fantasy baseball team for 3+ months.
But while we’re here, let’s get some quick idea of who those “steals specialists” could be next year. Who is the Chandler Simpson of 2026? The guy who isn’t drafted because he starts in the minors or is just unknown by most of your league, but then comes up and steals bases like crazy when he gets into the lineup.
Enrique Bradfield Jr.: The Orioles #4 overall prospect right now. He should begin 2026 in AAA and could find himself replacing Cedric Mullins in Camden Yards’ center field pretty early on. He’ll be 24 at season’s start and is coming off a 36-steal season in just 73 games played. He has a 58% career stolen base attempt rate (133 steals in 202 games). He’s a Chandler Simpson type with very little power (seven homers in 865 PA) but a high contact rate (17.5% K%) and the ability to take some walks (12.7% BB%).
Seth Stephenson: A 24-year-old outfielder in the Tigers system. He hit .281/.364/.410 in 111 games last season with 49 steals. And that was a down year for him. He swiped 70 in 2023 and 60 more in 2024. He’s only hit 17 career homers in 1,523 PAs, but he can slug a little bit, as shown by the .410 mark last year. There are some guys in his way here, obviously, but maybe the Tigers will move on from Parker Meadows and get the speedy Stephenson in their outfield for spells in 2026.
Bradfield is the only one I’d be interested in taking any sort of flyer on right now. Things will get a lot clearer as we get through the offseason. I’m guessing the price won’t be super high on a Chandler Simpson next year. And reaching a bit for him (maybe a 12th-round pick or something) makes a lot of sense if you decide on going for the “steals specialist” strategy.
But yeah, lots more to come as we get through this offseason. Goodbye!