Thursday already did the damage! The Cowboys were the public’s Week 5 pick and lost 24-16 at home to Bucky Irving and Jalon Daniels. That’s precisely why I never pick Thursday games. They’ve burned people twice already this year.
We survived Week 4 if you were on the Ravens or the Vikings. Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-18, Minnesota held Miami to 10 in a 15-10 win, and both were the chalk. The Seahawks also won, 30-23 over the Chargers. The Bills did not. New England took them 29-26, and that was the week's biggest killer. Bills tickets were light, so the field did not get blown up. I said last week I didn’t like picking divisional matchups.
Quick Thoughts
Biggest spread: Texans (-7.5) at Titans, with the Jaguars right next to them around a touchdown against the Eagles in London.
Best Week 4 burn: Bengals (-6.5) at Miami. Not a division game. Miami is a mess, Achane is out for the year, and Cincinnati’s next real spot isn't a game you are dying to protect.
Interesting options: Texans at Tennessee, Lions at Arizona, Jaguars in London if you still have them and you want a sprinkle.
Do not touch: Steelers, Eagles, Bears @ Packers, Lions
Ownership was a pile-on for Thursday. Cowboys were projected to eat 35–45% depending on the pool. Bengals seem to be the clear No. 2, somewhere in the 25-35% range, and that number was already sliding because Tee Higgins has not practiced and Ja’Marr Chase is working through the concussion protocol. He got in a limited session Thursday, so he has a chance. Higgins does not. Texans were third, roughly 10–20%, and a lot of that is people chasing the biggest number left. After that, it falls off a cliff.