We made it through Week 5 unscathed! All three options won- Texans, Bengals, and Jaguars- so I’ll pat myself on the back.
Several solid options are available this week. The pools are getting to be slim pickings now. It’ll be more important to fade the chalk when pools narrow to a more concentrated group.
Quick Thoughts
Biggest spread: Rams (-12.5) vs Cardinals. Still the highest win probability, but the divisional + short-week + chalk combo makes it less automatic than the raw number suggests.
Best Week 6 Burn: 49ers vs Commanders. Solid number, home, undefeated, lower ownership, not divisional.
Interesting Options: Colts vs Titans or Patriots vs Jets if you want to preserve both the Rams and 49ers. Both are home favorites in the mid-70s win % and have less future value.
Fade: Ravens (Lamar out, road division, only -3), Chiefs if you’re specifically wary of the division game, London, and the coin-flip games.
Ownership will largely be on the Rams (30-40%), Colts (15-25%), Patriots (15-20%), and the rest of the field around 10% or less, including the 49ers and Chiefs.