The 2025 All Buy Low Team
A fantasy roster full of my favorite buy-lows while examining 2024 & 2025 ADP data.
Intro
I am used to being really into social psychology. I read Thinking Fast & Slow, Blink, Outliers, How to Win Friends and Influence People, and all the other big ones. Those books focus on recognizing the biases and quirks of human behavior and reacting properly to them. I’m not as interested in such things now. I care a lot less about networking and figuring people out in a way that makes them like me than I used to. My focus is now on giving my wife the life she deserves and making sure my three kids turn out right.
But it is still advantageous to know the pitfalls that our minds are at risk of falling into. Two big ones we have to deal with are recency bias and a failure to account for regression to the mean.
A baseball player’s career is never a straight line.
The orange line does not exist in the real world. A player who averages a 100 wRC+ will look a lot more like the green line. Some years above, some years below.
That’s the regression principle. The other one is recency bias. We find recency bias when observing that ADP will trail behind performance. Players coming off a (relatively) bad season will get cheaper. Sharp fantasy players are decent at smoothing that out appropriately. Not all down years are created equal. Some come mostly from randomness; others come because of losses in physical ability (which happens with aging). The better fantasy players are good at distinguishing between the two. But there is still an advantage to be had in going to the “buy low, sell high” method.
So, we’re looking for buy lows. These are players who are much cheaper this year than last year, who I think can bounce back.
The Team
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto
ADP 2024: 77
ADP 2025: 138
We start with an old catcher. Catchers age more quickly than others. Have you ever tried to squat down in that crouch position for more than like 17 seconds?
Realmuto has long been on or near the top of the catcher ADP board. This year, he’s down to #10.
2025 Catcher ADP Ranks
William Contreras
Yainer Diaz
Adley Rutschman
Salvador Perez
Cal Raleigh
Willson Contreras
Will Smith
Logan O’Hoppe
Shea Langeliers
J.T. Realmuto
And why is that? The fact that he’s 33 years old is a part of it, but mostly, it’s because of the fact that he hit just 14 homers and stole two bases last year.
J.T. Realmuto Steals by Year
2021: 13
2022: 21
2023: 16
2024: 2
There were knee issues all over the place for Realmuto last year. It’s a very real concern, and knee issues are to be expected with guys who have played this much catcher in their careers. It first popped up in mid-May when he went to day-to-day with a knee injury. Eventually, surgery was required, and he missed more than a month (he was on the IL from June 11th to July 20th).
Before the knee issues popped up, he was running pretty close to normal with a stolen base attempt rate of 15% (he was at 16% in the 2023 season). After the knee stuff began, it went to 0% real quick.
Is it right to think he’ll have a clean bill of health and no more issues in 2025? Absolutely not. But there’s surely a chance that he remains pretty healthy this year. He still got out of the box well last year, so it’s reasonable to think he’ll be one of the faster catchers in the league again in 2025.
Even if the steals don’t come back, there’s good news on his quality of contact metrics.
Realmuto xBA & xwOBA by Year
2021: .245 xBA, .313 xwOBA
2022: .267 xBA, .338 xwOBA
2023: .248 xBA, .324 xwOBA
2024: .264 xBA, .343 xwOBA
He hit the ball even better in 2024 than in 2023 while keeping the strikeout rate (24.7%) and contact rate (74%) right in line with where he’d been for years.
The upside on Realmuto is another 20-homer, 15-steal season. More likely, perhaps, is that he sits more often this year and takes it easy on the bases. But I still think he’s a guy who will slug .450 or so with 15+ homers and a good number of RBI.
I’m perfectly happy to wait a bit at catcher and take Realmuto as my starter.
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First Base: Paul Goldschmidt
ADP 2024: 82
ADP 2025: 170
Goldy is probably my least favorite guy in this post. The guy is 37 and coming off a season where the expected stats all fell significantly.
We do have an environmental change here, which is always interesting. He goes from a bad Cardinals lineup to a strong Yankees lineup, and that comes with a positive change in park factors.
He did strike out more last year (23.5% in 2023, 26.6% last year), but he was still hitting the ball hard (92nd percentile hard-hit rate, 73rd percentile barrel rate). You can backslide and still be nowhere near the bottom of the hill, and I think that’s where we’re at with Goldy.
He’s likely to hit cleanup behind Volpe, Jazz, and Judge. Hitting behind a guy with a near 20% walk rate will get you plenty of pitches to hit and plenty of RBI opportunities. I think Goldschmidt can still cruise past 20 homers and 80 RBI, and that’s pretty nice for a first baseman at ADP 180 (#14 first baseman off the board).
Second Base: Xander Bogaerts
ADP 2024: 107
ADP 2025: 154
Bogaerts bottomed out in a number of categories last year, slugging just .382 with 11 homers and a 5.1% Brl%. Those were all by far the worst marks of his career. The fractured shoulder he sustained in late May certainly did him no favors. He returned on July 12th and finished this year like this:
259 PA, .300/.340/.435, 7 HR, 9 SB, 14.3% K%, 6.2% BB%
That’s really impressive for a guy coming off of a shoulder injury like that. It seemed like the power came back even more in September with a .435 SLG and four homers in the season’s final month.
It has been a while since Bogaerts was a roto fantasy stud, but I’m confident that he’s better than ADP 160 (the #9 2B off the board).
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson
ADP 2024: 126
ADP 2025: 180
Shortstop is pretty loaded this year, so you might not have to bother with Swanson if you get into the pool early. He’s the 21st shortstop off the board this year on average, so that makes him a middle infield or bench option for your fantasy teams.
“Draft Dansby Swanson” is not going to be a bullet point on my draft guide, but I do think a bounce-back year can happen. There was not an injury to blame, and the guy is still decently young (he’ll turn 31 this month). This is simply a pick based on the principle of regression to the mean.
The price follows the most recent production, and the smart projection is one that puts him back up around his recent career average (.740-.760).
Third Base: Max Muncy
ADP 2024: 180
ADP 2025: 286
Muncy is 34, so it wasn’t a shock to see him break down a bit last year. He missed a ton of time with an oblique issue. That’s not one you like to see, but it was good that he finished the season in the lineup and played straight through the postseason. The oblique is not an issue right now. That doesn’t mean it can’t come back, but it is always more reassuring when a player finishes the year healthy.
In his 293 PAs last year, he slugged .494 with 15 homers. That’s a home run rate better than a 20 PA/HR. He’d have a 30-homer season in about 590 PAs at that pace. The signs all point to Muncy still being able to hit dingers.
It’s hard to like the fact that he can’t play any DH with Ohtani in town. That opens him up to more injury risk. I’m by no means projecting a 650 PA season for him, but you can see the price above. Twenty different third basemen get drafted before Muncy goes this year; you’re looking at this guy as a bench player in standard leagues. I would love to have someone with this home run ability in the middle of the Dodgers lineup on my roster for this kind of price.
Outfield: Josh Lowe
ADP 2024: 79
ADP 2025: 165
I have certain issues with Lowe. His floor matches his last name - very low. He has had trouble staying healthy, and the K% has been at 32% or above in two of his three seasons in the Majors. There are plenty of ways that this can go poorly.
However, there are not many hitters outside of the top 50 in ADP who can go for a 20-25 season, and that’s the pace we have seen Lowe play at so far in his young career.
1,008 PA, 32 HR, 61 SB
That is good for about a 20-homer, 35-steal pace. Add on a few homers that the new ballpark situation will give these Rays lefties, and you have yourself a potential top-25 hitter if he can stay on the field and get the K% under control. I’m willing to take a shot on him at this 170-ish ADP, but it’s far from a safe play.
Outfield: Jordan Walker
ADP 2024: 105
ADP 2025: 290
I am betting on skills and youth here. Walker is among the elite in bat speed, and he adds an 82nd-percentile sprint speed to go with it.
There are names in that territory that have failed over and over again in the Majors (Jo Adell, namely), but Jordan Walker is still just 22 years old. He’s also priced to the point where if it’s not working out, you can move on and you would not have set yourself back too much.
Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman
ADP 2024: 34
ADP 2025: 170
The full story is in his player preview, but I’ll summarize.
He lost nearly ten points on his strikeout rate last year
The SwStr% went from 14.3% to 11.7%
The splitter went from a 45% Strike% to 38%
That’s all bad news. The good news is that he’s not ancient at the age of 34. I mean, that’s old for a professional athlete, but he is not up there in Justin Verlander territory. The other good news is that his four-seamer was still good last year (55% Strike%). Splitters are weird. Throwing a lot of them tend to make you pretty volatile start-to-start, so I’m thinking that maybe we just saw some extreme variance overall in that 2024 season.
I don’t think he has much of a shot at getting back to a 28-32% K%, but I do think he can settle somewhere in between what he did in these last two seasons, and that would make him a decent value for where he’s going this year.
Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo
ADP 2024: 84
ADP 2025: 251
Watch this:
Jesus Luzardo SwStr% and K% by Year
2022: 14.5%, 30.0%
2023: 15.0%, 27.7%
2024: 14.5%, 21.2%
Luzardo had no issues getting whiffs last year, but for some reason, the K% fell through the roof.
This is a natural regression pick. I have very little doubt that the K% will come back up at least into the mid-20s next year. That won’t solve all of his problems. He’ll need to stay healthy and keep the walk rate and home run rate under control, but I’m buying any pitcher who I think is going to add 4-6 points onto their K% next year.
Starting Pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
ADP 2024: 66
ADP 2025: 108
Grayson has had a lot of trouble staying healthy. That’s the main issue with him. We should note that this Major League performance has not been all that impressive so far:
43 GS, 239 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 25.7% K%, 7.8% BB%
Even with all of that, I still want to be a buyer on this kind of profile. He posted a sweet 15.1% SwStr% last year. He has a great fastball foundation (13.5% SwStr%, 51% Strike%, 96.1mph), and there are multiple secondaries to choose from when he’s ahead (changeup, slider, curveball). The ceiling remains extremely high with Rodriguez, I think a breakout year is coming soon.
Starting Pitcher: Logan Webb
ADP 2024: 52
ADP 2025: 105
I’ve never been much of a Logan Webb fan for fantasy purposes. But what exactly happened last year to justify this 50-pick drop in ADP? He made another 33 starts, logged another 205 innings, and put up a 3.47 ERA. He did his worst work in WHIP (1.23), so maybe that’s what’s sending him down the list?
The K-BB% did get worse:
Logan Webb K% and BB% by Year
2021: 26.5% K%, 6.0% BB%
2022: 20.7% K%, 6.2% BB%
2023: 22.8% K%, 3.6% BB%
2024: 20.5% K%, 5.9% BB%
I suppose that’s our answer. It wasn’t a very good 14.5% K-BB%. But there is year-to-year variance in K% and BB% just like anything else, and we find ourselves now in a valley. The most likely place to go is up.
I can absolutely see Webb snapping back to a 23% K% and a 5% BB%. with the kind of volume he offers (especially in quality starts and wins leagues), he’s a great find after pick 100.
Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo
ADP 2024: 32
ADP 2025: 95
The Mariners pitching home/road splits are striking. That may have something to do with the reduced cost, because there have been a lot of rumors about Castillo maybe being traded. But that looks very unlikely now that we’re mostly through the offseason. So we should have another year of Castillo in Seattle.
He was worst last year, no doubt about it:
But an 18% K-BB% and 13.1% SwStr% are still pretty solid. Tag that along with the possibility of regression back toward his career averages and the fact that he’s a reliable volume guy, and you have yourself a solid buy-low in my book.