Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
Happy Free Play Friday! We are going to have the whole card free today and share where we’ve been going. We’ve been incredibly hot and we get to attack one of our favorite pitchers today.
We get to attack Zach Little of the Washington Nationals. This year versus left-handed pitching in 19 innings he’s given up 11 home runs, which is a 5.21 HR/9 He’s given up a 0.422 ISO while giving up a 48.7% hard hit rate, an insane 37% fly ball rate, and a 37.9% home run fly ball rate.
Samuel Bassallo BAL O 1.5 H,R,RBI -110 1.5u and O .5 HR +450 .5u
Bassallo has been very good versus right-handed pitching this season with a.219 ISO. He’s hit four jacks already and he gets a great matchup today versus Littell. Samuel is 11th on the HR projection chart today and here is a sneak peak of the top 11
One day I hope you have someone that loves you as much as Jon’s model loves Taylor Ward home runs. That being said I’m not a massive BVP guy; however Ward has kind of smacked Zach around in a few at bats so we’re going to go after this today.
Taylor Ward BAL O .5 HR +561 .5u
The over under tracker is 106-85 this season and we have two spots we really like today and we’re going to take advantage of them.
NYY vs NYM O 6.5 -123 at Novig 1u
This is a massive savings because, to give you an idea, this is -144 at DraftKings and -145 at BetMGM. The JA tools have this projected at 9.24. It’s almost a three-run difference. That kind of EV is something we want to take advantage of.
Now there are two reasons I like this game tonight to finish out this slate:
At 7.5 total and this projected at 8.97, I like the spot we can get it at because we can get it for plus money.
63% of the money today is on the under.
I am always a fan of fading the public.
SD vs SEA O 7.5 +119 Novig .5u
And for our last matchup today we are going to go and bet on Mr. Trey Yesavage. He has a 7.69 K Prop projection and his book line is 5.5k. And his couple starts back so far. He’s averaged a 26.3% K percentage, a 28% whiff percentage, and a 14.4 SWSTR%. His splitter has been absolutely filthy and, add in his four-seamers, so far he’s only given up a 0.77 ISO to it.
Trey Yesavage TOR O 5.5k -102 2u Fanduel
Since it’s Free Play Friday and all you degenerates love parlays so much, we’re going to work a couple parlays in here for you. These are sprinkles, just like a lotto Ticket. They’re there to have fun.
Mickey Moniak COL/Shea Langaliers ATH/Sameul Basallo BAL HR +7217 .1u DK
Trey Yesavage TOR 8+/Jack Leiter TEX 8+/Conelly Early BOS +7 Ks +8073 .1u FD