Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
Wanted to give an update on where we are at for the year. So far we have risked 177 units while profiting 32.3 units for a ROI of 18%.
If you’re not aware, that’s unbelievable. Our goal is to hit 3% to 5% a year and we would be in amazing shape while we’re having fun doing it. Let’s hope we stay this hot and just have the best season ever.
Our play of the day is going to be something that I feel like the sports books are telling us. Griffin Jax K line is 4.5. While he’s getting stretched out now, he hasn’t struck out more than three this season and the books moved it to 4.5 today.
His K projection against Baltimore tonight is 7.17. We’ve continued to see him get stretched out more and more and this is a spot when we have that kind of projection versus that line in the books telling us that we like to bet it. Jax has a combined 31% K rate, 17% swing strike rate so we want to take advantage of him not giving up very much here.
Griffin Jax TB O 4.5k -105 1u and O 5.5k +200 1u MGM
So why are we betting one unit and one unit instead of two units on 4.5 when he hasn’t got close? The books moved his line because I believe they know his pitch count’s going to go deeper today. When you give Baltimore’s K ability against these types of pitchers, I’m going to go ahead and attack that and at +200 we have that. It should only be +140 today.