Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
First things first there are a ton of weather problems today. The Cincy game already got canceled. Weather does not look good in Baltimore and in Atlanta and we got the wind blowing in a lot of places today. This isn’t going to be a heavy card by any means.
Today we’re going to have some education on why finding good lines matter and what it can tell you. So we get Jacob deGrom pitching against the Angels with the highest K rate in the league tonight. So his current line is set at 7.5 and it is +105 at no vig, who is legal in 42 states, by the way. When you get to the “big books” quote, you start seeing -120 to -125. We have him projected for 9.34ks today and the fact you can get +105 at no vig allows you to take advantage of this situation and not pay that extra juice. Now if you wanted to lock in guaranteed profit, you can go to Ceasers and bet his under at -111. Then you can go over to Novig and bet it at +102 and you can lock in guaranteed money.
However for me deGrom, who currently has a 33% whiff rate, a 28.4% K-rate, a 23.9% put-away rate, and a 16.1% swinging strike rate, I’m not giving up that and we’re going to ladder him because I want to attack the number one K team in the league versus right-handed pitching.
This cheat sheet is one of my favorite tools we have as it shows everything from pitch count to K% and ball% and swing and strike rate and a bunch of other fun tools and then I can dig into the data from there. You get access to all of this with the paid version and it’s so inexpensive. Take advantage!
Jacob deGrom TEX O 7.5k +102 1u NoVig and O 8.5k +173 1u and O 9.5k +313 .5u
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