Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
This is generally one of the most overbet days of the year. People are coming off the All-Star break. We don’t know who went off on a bender, who did it, who actually went and rested, and who’s ready to go. We haven’t had that much action in the middle of summer to bet on this week, and I see guys come out and just fire like crazy coming back here. We don’t want to do that today. We want to see how guys are looking as they come back, so we’re gonna ease into this coming weekend.
Quick check-in on where the Over/Under tracker stands this season: 222-185. That’s a 54.5% clip across 407 graded totals, and if you’ve been tailing at a unit a play, you’re sitting on right around +17 units at standard juice. For anyone newer here, break-even on -110 lines is 52.4%, so everything above that line is profit. We’re not just above it, we’ve stayed above it for months. Now, if you go use peer-to-peer somewhere like that openly, you will be even better than that and many more units up.
What I like most about that record isn’t the number itself, it’s the volume behind it. Anybody can run hot for 40 bets. Holding 54% and change over 400-plus plays means the model is finding real edges, not just riding variance. Totals are one of the sharper markets in baseball, and the fact that the sim keeps beating the closing number day after day is the whole reason this tracker exists. Let’s keep it rolling.
When in doubt, why not attack something that we just love to attack this season? That would be the Los Angeles Angels and their K rate. Troy Melton heading into the All-Star break: in his last three starts, he has six, seven, and nine Ks. He’s had a 21% put away rate and a 12% swing-and-strike rate. Again, the Angels just really struggle against right-handed pitching. We know they’re the number-one K-rate team in the league. Number two is right-handed pitching, and we have them projected at 7.15 versus a 5.5 prop line. This is a solid spot to be here today. You can see from the charts here what he’s done getting going here in the middle of summer.
Troy Melton DET O 5.5k +100 1u and O 6.5k +185 1u