Trevor (@ffculater) hands out some high upside best bets for today’s MLB action. Subscribe or upgrade today to get loads of DFS and betting content and tools!
We’re going to start off with a free play today on what is more American than Nathan’s hot dog eating contest. Joey Chestnuts line is 70.5 at DK here is why the UNDER has value. There is no paywall today. Happy 250th America!!
Heat is a killer: Forecast is upper 90s (some projections near 99–101°F) with extreme heat warnings and feels-like temps over 105°F. The contest is outdoors in direct sun. Heat historically tanks totals, Chestnut’s personal low was 54 in 96° heat back in 2010. Buns get stale and harder to eat, and dehydration slows everyone down.
He doesn’t need to push it: Chestnut already made his statement last year by eating exactly 70.5 after missing 2024. He’s a massive favorite to win his 18th title and will dominate regardless. Second place was only around 46–47 last year. No real incentive to chase his 76 record (set in much cooler 2021 weather) when 65–68 would still win easily.
Recent form supports caution: Before last year’s 70.5, he went 62 (2023) and 63 (2022). At 42 years old, he’s not the same peak version from 2020–2021.
Odds vs. reality: The -165 to -175 on the Under implies roughly 62% probability for the Under. Given the heat and motivation factors, many bettors think the true probability of going under 70.5 is higher than that.
Joey Chestnut U 70.5 Hot Dogs Eaten -175 1u
One of our favorite spots to attack is the Los Angeles Angels and tonight Sonny Gray gets them on a 6.5 line at plus money. Remember the Angels are the number two K rate league and the team number two versus right-handed pitching, striking out way less against lefties. Gray’s got back-to-back 11 and 9 Ks and 11 Ks were at Colorado. His put-away rate has been really good; he’s up to 21.7%. This is just too good a value at plus money to pass up when we have him projected at 6.81 today.
Sonny Gray BOS O 6.5k +106 2u and O 7.5k +198 1u
Next spot we’re going to attack is Hunter Green, who is back against the O’s today. They are the number four-ranked K team in the league. He is number five versus right-handed pitching and when we project him for 8.66 strikeouts on a six and a half line, it’s too good to pass up. Francona has said he’s not on a pitch count today also.
Hunter Greene CIN O 6.5k -122 1.5u
The Nationals are letting Carson Palmquist open for Zach Littell today but that’s not going to stop us from betting against him. Zach is giving up a 3.4 home run to nine-inning rate, 47% hard hit rate, 37% fly ball rate, 25% home run fly ball rate for his lefties. It’s just too good a spot for the left-handed bats of the Pirates.
Brandon Lowe PIT O .5 HR +280 .5u
Ryan O’Hearn PIT O .5 HR +470 .5u
Tyler Callihan PIT O .5 HR +600 .5u