Trevor is BUSY this week, so you’ve got ME. Big JA doing the betting work. I have very little confidence in my betting abilities.
But here’s what we’re finna do. We’re going to follow the model and take some things to the dumb extreme. Let’s splash around a bunch of $5 bets and see if we can’t hit something LARGE.
RESOURCE ALERT
MLB DW Projection Tracking by Lineup Spot
I tweeted about this yesterday. What it does is compare my projections before the lineups come out with my projections after. It looks like this:
So an example from the early game. I had Lane Thomas projected to hit #3, but then the lineup came out and he was #1. That boosted his projection from 6.9 to 7.2 and gives you the BUY SIGNAL. If you react really quickly on those, you can probably get some value in the R and RBI betting.
So for Thomas, you might have wanted to bet his RUNS because he moved up two slots. That puts better hitters behind him and gives him a higher AB projection.
The link’s in the resource glossary and below the paywall here when we get to it. It’s also just kinda fun to see how the projections change due to lineup spots.
PITCHER BUYS
GRIFFIN JAX
This should be an “easy win”:
The juice is on, but Jax has been awesome. He’s better at home, and the Yankees are terrible right now. They like him getting through five innings, and they did let him get up near 90 pitches to get him through the fifth a couple of starts ago. But he’s been ridiculously efficient and has gone 5+ innings in five straight without much of a sweat.
LANDEN ROUPP
The guy isn’t giving up homers at home. Just two all year, and a very high K% there as well. The Blue Jays don’t strike out much, but they really don’t have many home run threats in this park. So I like Roupp to have a nice start.
UNDER 9.5 H+BB+ER FOR -117.
PITCHER FADES
CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ
I think he’s going to give up like nine hits and eight earned runs today! I wrote this before it happened, TRUST ME.
That was a JOKE if you didn’t notice.
CAM SCHLITTLER
It doesn’t set up well for Schlittler and his up-and-down strikeout totals. The Rays make a ton of contact and will be looking to do that against the Schlit-man.
I’ve got Schlittler for 5.9 strikeouts. The under 6.5 is at -160:
Don’t love the juice, but I doubt he’s getting to seven.
REYNALDO LOPEZ
I hate Reynaldo Lopez. It’s not personal, I don’t think. But he’s bad and I love the Mets being up against him. Specifically, the top four:
I’ve already bet METS OVER 4.5 TEAM RUNS (+100). But we can gear up for some upside giving all of these guys over 1.5 H+R+RBI. If the Mets go nuts, that probably cashes and we get a nice pay-off.
Or you can go bigger than that on 3+ in a couple spots.
DC CRAP FEST
The Nationals pitching staff + breakout offense has turned DC into one of the top venues in the league for run-scoring. You can’t get find too many worse righties than these two.
Yordan Alvarez + James Wood HR Parlay. That makes some sense, but the prices are rough on them and you’re lucky to get 9:1 on that combo.
You could also just go the whole way up to OVER 13.5 RUNS FOR +380 on DraftKings. Take a look at the HR projections from that game:
Curtis Mead and Isaac Paredes are fly ball hitters with more advantageous home run lines. About +450 for both of them. There should be some fireworks in that game if the rain holds off, so we can sprinkle the long ball bets all around it.
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