Another day of ME. And this will be my last betting preview of the first half. I have had some fun with them this week. But Trevor will return to help out again this weekend. I’ll try to do a little more betting stuff in the second half, I think.
I’m going through EVERY game in this one to hit some bets I think are good.
Athletics @ Tigers
The model loves some Jack Perkins. Check out the home/road splits, they mostly make the point:
Very strong K% in both spots, but on the road he’s given up just the one homer. That makes logical sense, given the home park. So we should be targeting Perkins (positively) on the road. He’s even been great with the walk rate on the road. That’s probably mostly random/small sampley, but maybe it just plays out because he’s more willing to attack the zone on the road not dealing with those fences that are 67 feet behind him.
But it looks like they might be throwing an opener out before him. So the LINES are gone. We’ll have to wait for those to come back, but they might not come back if he’s really behind an opener, I guess.
If he’s the bulk, I’d be pretty into his market on getting a win. These bulk guys don’t have to throw the five innings to get the win. As long as they’re the “most effective”, the official scorer can give them the win. And they usually do give the bulk the W. But that would require the Athletics to lead for most/all of the game, and they’re just +109 on the moneyline so that’s a coin flip at best for them to even win the game.
But the model loves Perkins, so I figured I’d tell you that.
Bullpen advantage: Tigers
The matchups model on the A’s:
Not great. With Rooker and Soderstrom out, there’s very little power in the lineup - and look at Kurtz against lefties like Framber - it’s all bad.
So the path forward here might be an UNDER bet. That’s where I’ll take you for this one:
ATH/DET UNDER 9 -115