The Final Top 100 SP Update
One last trip through my top 100 starting pitchers before the big draft weekend!
There have been several changes to the starting pitcher scene in the last week. I have been updating my rankings as often as I can as that goes, but I wanted to put out one more post and podcast going through my top 100 and giving the needed comments along the way.
I am assuming that most drafts are happening in the next seven days before the Japan series. I will continue to update my rankings right up to Opening Day, but I think it will help a lot of you if I talk through the whole thing one more time.
I’m going to give you bigger tiers this time. I’m looking to group everybody into a handful of tiers.
I’ve talked through all of this on the podcast, so I’m not going to type it all out again. You can find the pod on Apple or Spotify by searching “MLB Data Warehouse”, but here’s the Spotify player:
Below, you’ll see the full list and my quick comments on the group. For much more detailed analysis, listen to that podcast. Since I did this it this way, I might as well make this whole thing free since podcasts aren’t paywalled. Enjoy!
Tier One
Tarik Skubal
Paul Skenes
Logan Gilbert
Zack Wheeler
Garrett Crochet
Cole Ragans
Corbin Burnes
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Chris Sale
Dylan Cease
Michael King
Blake Snell
This large tier one is a dozen pitchers. The thing that separates them is that I think these are the 12 best bets for an overall SP1 season.
Tier Two
Shota Imanaga
Spencer Schwellenbach
Joe Ryan
Pablo Lopez
Framber Valdez
Hunter Greene
Shane McClanahan
Bryce Miller
Roki Sasaki
Jacob deGrom
Sandy Alcantara
Jack Flaherty
Sonny Gray
Logan Webb
Bailey Ober
Justin Steele
Spencer Strider
Tanner Bibee
Hunter Brown
Bryan Woo
Luis Castillo
Zac Gallen
Tyler Glasnow
Carlos Rodon
Freddy Peralta
Max Fried
Robbie Ray
Cristopher Sanchez
Here are the rest of the guys I feel good about rostering all year long. I don’t see myself dropping any of these names unless they get hurt, or they’re pitching just absolutely horribly for multiple months. In a ten team league, I’m looking to get five of these top 40. In a 12-team league, four of the top 40. In a 15-teamer, at least three.
Tier Three
George Kirby
Yusei Kikuchi
Nick Pivetta
Jared Jones
Ryan Pepiot
Brandon Pfaadt
Aaron Nola
Nick Lodolo
Kodai Senga
Clay Holmes
Reynaldo Lopez
Kevin Gausman
Taj Bradley
Drew Rasmussen
Jesus Luzardo
Plenty of upside remains here, and these guys should all be universally rostered out of the gate. But they all have more (and differing forms of) risk. I can’t say with 100% confidence that these guys are all good enough to be started in standard fantasy leagues all year while healthy (Kirby is an exception as the injured guy).
Tier Four
Jeffrey Springs
Seth Lugo
Spencer Arrighetti
Nathan Eovaldi
Grayson Rodriguez
MacKenzie Gore
Shane Baz
Gavin Williams
Zach Eflin
Clarke Schmidt
David Festa
Bowden Francis
Jackson Jobe
Tanner Houck
Ranger Suarez
Max Scherzer
Reese Olson
A mix of guys with safety and upside here, but nobody has both. This is the point where we start to take some chances in anticipation or switch up our rotation a lot in the early months while hunting for upside.
In a ten or 12 team league, I’d like to be done with my pitching staff by the time this group is gone. And these are all guys I’d be willing to drop if things aren’t looking great early on if I think there’s a potential stud available on waivers.
Tier Five
Ronel Blanco
Lucas Giolito
DJ Herz
Grant Holmes
Kumar Rocker
Jose Soriano
Ryan Weathers
Walker Buehler
Yu Darvish
Mitch Keller
Nick Martinez
Nestor Cortes
Brandon Woodruff
Luis Severino
Shohei Ohtani
Kutter Crawford
Jose Berrios
Cody Bradford
Zebby Matthews
Tylor Megill
Kyle Harrison
Hayden Birdsong
Matthew Boyd
Sean Burke
Max Meyer
Tomoyuki Sugano
Dustin May
Kris Bubic
The rest of the top 100. Personally, I’m only looking to draft guys here who I think have a huge upside because we’re well past the point in the draft where you’re looking for safety at SP. Get safe guys, early on, and then buy lottery tickets later on. You can replace guys on waivers in April and May.
My favorites: Weathers, Matthews, Megill, Boyd, Burke, Meyer, May, Bubic
Here’s hoping this list ends up looking prescient and that it helps you subscribers in your drafts coming up!
Hi Jon,
Can you help me make sense of a couple of things?
I am a little confused by SP rankings, 2025 projections on the Google sheets and those on the Tableau Dashboard.
Take, for example, Kevin Gausman.
- You rank him as your 52nd SP.
- On Google sheets, you have projected ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.14 and 188 K. That makes him your SP10 according to auction values.
- On Tableau, you have him projected with an ERA 3.74, WHIP 1.22 and 168 K.
These are wildly different ranks and values. I have chosen one example, but there are dozens of the sort.
Can you clarify this please?
thanks
Will Warren thoughts on NYY? Sure feels like he is going to get a chance at a rotation spot given the spring outings + all of the injuries on the Yankees.