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The Run Environment
Ten games, and the sim is not subtle. NYY at PHI prices out at 12.35 total runs, nearly two full runs clear of the field, with the Yankees alone at 7.45. The sim gives that game a 60.7% chance of clearing 10 runs. Next tier: COL at MIL 10.40 (MIL 6.16), ATH at MIN 9.96 (MIN 5.56), CIN at STL 9.71 (CIN 5.60), ATL at BAL 9.55 (ATL 5.51). The bottom is CHC at PIT 7.42 and LAD at NYM 8.02.
Now the field read, and it is strange. The highest team total on the slate has no bat above 10% ownership. Jazz Chisholm leads the Yankees at 10%, Ben Rice is 7%. Meanwhile Byron Buxton sits at 22% for a team projected 1.89 runs lower. That is the entire slate in one comparison: the field is paying a premium for the fifth-best offense and getting the best one for free.
The trap is Minnesota’s ownership cluster. The quiet spot is every Yankee bat 5 through 9.
Weather
Pitching
