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So I’m going to have an update and a little bit of a change in how I’ve been writing the articles. I would love to hear everybody’s thoughts and some feedback on what you like and didn’t like. I’m always trying to get better and I think this will help maybe condense it a little bit. Let me know your thoughts please.
Tonight’s Run Environment
Eleven games, and the sim splits them into two very different buckets. Five game totals sit above 10.5 simulated runs, and one towers over everything.
NYM @ ATL is the print of the night at 12.31, and it’s lopsided. The sim hands the Mets 7.54 runs against Grant Holmes and gives New York a 68.2% win and an 81.2% chance to clear 7.5 runs by themselves. That’s the highest team run projection on the board by more than a run. BAL @ CIN (11.72) and MIA @ ATH (11.41) round out the top of the environment, both with over-9.5 odds north of 60%. TB @ HOU (10.60), SF @ COL (10.85), and MIN @ NYY (10.14) fill out the high-scoring tier.
The floor games: BOS @ LAA is the lowest total on the slate at 7.20, with two arms the sim respects. TOR @ SEA (7.83) and MIL @ ARI (7.86) are the other pitcher-friendly spots
Where the field is likely to be wrong: