The Offseason Monitor: Alex Bregman's Chicago Chapter
What a five-year deal with the Cubs means for his fantasy value in 2026
The Chicago Cubs made one of the most significant infield investments of the offseason thus far, signing Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract, with $70 million deferred. It’s a deal that signals Chicago’s intent to stabilize the middle of its lineup with a proven bat, even if the best years of Bregman’s peak production may already be in the rearview mirror.
What makes the move puzzling is what didn’t happen. If the Cubs were willing to spend this kind of money, why didn’t they bring back Kyle Tucker? Tucker is almost certainly aiming for a $40M AAV now, but it feels like Chicago could have made that work if they truly wanted to. Instead, Bregman’s arrival complicates the infield picture, blocking Matt Shaw from meaningful playing time unless the Cubs move Nico Hoerner for pitching help and slide Shaw over to second base.
It’s a confusing situation—one we’re going to try to make sense of.
Bregman at Wrigley: What the Projections Say
Early projections for Bregman paint a familiar picture: steady volume, solid counting stats, and modest power.
Our fearless leader, Jon, has already adjusted Bregman’s projections to account for Wrigley, while the other systems are still park-neutral. Click here to open up Jon’s original post.
IF Bregman can stay healthy, he should be a productive bat in a relatively young lineup. The Cubs are clearly buying into the intangibles here—clubhouse leadership, postseason experience, and a professional approach at the plate. That stuff doesn’t move the needle in fantasy leagues, but in real life, it matters, and teams are willing to pay a premium for it.
Bregman Fantasy Value: Safe, Not Sexy
Bregman currently checks in as 3B8, going ahead of his new teammate Matt Shaw (3B 13).
We did get an NFBC 50s draft last night (the 11th), and Bregman went a lot higher than his usual:
Sample sizes matter in fantasy drafts, too! I’m guessing that was an outlier pick, and I think we’ll see Bregman’s ADP heading toward 150 rather than 100. But he was still the eighth 3B taken in that draft, so nothing changed on that front.
That ranking reflects what he still does well:
→Rarely strikes out (AVG 13% K% L5 seasons)
→ Has been healthy past 4 seasons (AVG 144 games played)
→Provides decent RBI/Runs totals
What he probably doesn’t do anymore is carry a fantasy roster. The days of elite 30-plus homer upside appear gone, and projections consistently lean conservative on his slugging. Even the more optimistic systems stop short of calling him a middle-of-the-order masher.
I am personally going to fade Bregman, but if he is able to put together another healthy season, it will be productive with a safe floor. Chicago’s lineup context should help Bregman’s counting stats remain strong. Even if the power is merely average for the position, volume, and lineup position keep his floor intact.
Bregman’s arrival clarifies the Cubs’ infield picture. He locks down third base, allowing Shaw to be deployed more flexibly or brought along without pressure. For fantasy managers, this immediately caps Shaw’s short-term ceiling.
Do not draft Shaw (at current cost) unless the Cubs move Hoerner.
General Reaction Around the League
The deal broke late Saturday night while the Chicago Bears were staring defeat in the face against the Green Bay Packers. Then—boom—Bregman signs, the Bears storm back (as they always seem to do), and Chicago sports fans suddenly had an all-time night. The Bulls won. The Blackhawks won. All that was missing was the White Sox signing Kyle Tucker.
Who am I kidding—that was never happening.
Still, it raises the obvious question: why Bregman over Tucker? Did Tucker have no interest in returning? Was Bregman viewed as the stronger clubhouse leader? Tucker seemed to have real chemistry with PCA in the outfield, so the pivot is interesting—especially considering the Cubs paid a premium for a player three years older.
As soon as the deal happened, the general reaction was WOW, what an overpay… Like Andrew Friedman once said, “If you are rational on every FA, you’re going to finish third for every FA”. The Cubs were irrational and got their guy. Meanwhile, the Red Sox remained rational to a degree and failed to bring back their clubhouse leader. Which is a disaster in itself. They brought Bregman in last offseason, right before Spring Training, and ended up causing a drama meltdown in the clubhouse, so they traded Devers for scraps and have now lost Bregman. Utter disaster for the Red Sox faithful besides Jon Henry. He no longer has to pay Devers or Bregman, so win for that guy!
My personal reaction is that the Cubs overpaid, but we haven’t seen them dish out a contract like this since Dansby Swanson a few years ago (7 yrs - $177M), and before that, never before. They have a real chance to win the NL Central in 2026, so go spend the money and do it. Certainly, nobody else in that division is going to spend money.
Final Takeaway
Alex Bregman to the Cubs isn’t a league-winner move for fantasy, but it’s a stabilizing one. He profiles as a decent-floor, moderate-ceiling third baseman who should comfortably return value at his current ADP, especially for managers prioritizing consistency over upside.
He will not carry your roster anymore—but he’s also unlikely to sink it.
Further Reading
This is Jon! If you want more fantasy baseball analysis on Bregman, I found this piece on CBS by Scott White very good.