The Offseason Monitor: Contact on the Coast, Power on the South Side
Austin Hays chases opportunity in Chicago while Luis Arraez brings certainty to San Francisco
On the last day of January, we have Austin Hays landing with the White Sox and Luis Arraez heading to San Francisco. Two hitters with very different profiles, heading to very different situations — and the fantasy outcomes couldn’t be more unattractive.
Austin Hays → Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are cooking this winter. It was reported just before he signed that there were offers from the Reds, Rangers, Tigers, Cardinals, Padres, and Cubs. Playing time had to be one of the reasons he ultimately ended up in Chitown. Hays has been a platoon bat the last few seasons. I mean, this guy did start in center field for the American League in the 2023 All-Star game.
If we reflect upon the 2025 season, we will find that Hays possessed a slightly above-average barrel percentage (10.39%) but had below league-average stats in the following
→xwOBA .308
→Chase% 34.5%
→AVG exit velo 87.5 MPH
He is a lefty masher these days, as we can see below. But what I found interesting is that he hit more HR on the road than at Great American Small Park. The right-on-right K% has always been a problem for Hays, but when he starts against a lefty, I will be playing Hays in DFS.
I think Hays still has potential to platoon in left or right field with Andrew Benintendi or Jarred Kelenic, depending on how spring training goes.
Austin is currently ranked OF96 with an ADP of 393. So only in super deep leagues will you have to decide if an aging outfielder that can mash against lefties is worthy of a spot on your roster. I will opt for others around his ADP, such as Jeff McNeil in his new minor league home or Willi Castro in Colorado.
Nonetheless, this White Sox lineup has the potential to be an interesting threat to American League Central teams. If their youth at the top of the lineup can produce, there are veterans in that clubhouse to lead them to win a few more games than they should.
Luis Arraez → San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey rounds out his lineup, bringing in Luis Arraez on a 1 year-$12 million deal. In real life, this move makes sense to bring elite bat-to-ball skill to the top of their lineup, but in fantasy, this is a rather frustrating move.
In roto leagues, Arraez will only help in one category, batting average. He does not steal, he does not hit for power (especially now in SF), RBI chances will be limited since we will be leading off mostly. I do not want Arraez on my fantasy team unless I have capitalized early and have a ton of one category (power, steals, RBI’s) and need to make up for batting average. On the contrary, Arraez will not strikeout, which helps in points leagues.
To further prove my point if we look at his baseball savant page we can see he excels at batting average and not striking out..and that is it. He does not hit the ball hard at all. Arraez does not walk either. If you are in an OBP league, the only way he gets on base is if he gets a hit.
I would reccomend avoid Arraez shares. If he does not hit, then he becomes useless. Lastly, if we look at his batted-ball profiles, you will notice this guy is a groundball merchant who isn’t fast. That is not a good combination.
It’s one thing if we were talking about Chandler Simpson, but we are talking about someone with a 25th percentile sprint speed. Arraez has a BABIP of .284. If we look at the league as a whole, the average BABIP for all players with more than 200 PA is .293. Needless to say, I am fading, Luis Arraez.
If you have already drafted Casey Schmitt, I am sorry to share the news that he will not have regular playing time.
Final Thoughts
As rosters fill out, both of these moves make sense for the real-life teams. Hays is providing veteran presence for the young players in Chicago, and the Giants have found their leadoff man. In terms of fantasy, neither guy is a pick-up for me in their new homes.