The Offseason Monitor: Multiple FA Signings; Red Sox and Brewers Swap Pieces
A flurry of moves to begin the week.
The Pittsburgh Pirates kicked off our busy Monday morning, signing Marcell Ozuna to a 1-year, $12 million deal. Their offensive production should be much better than last season. Taking a gamble on a player that is just one of eight in the NL to hit at least 20 home runs in the past four seasons is a risk worth taking. He is going to fill the DH role for the team, pushing Horwitz to 1st or the outfield, with O’Hearn in the same role.
MLB Data Warehouse has the following projection for Ozuna.
508PA, .245/.343/.453, 61 R, 22 HR, 64 RBI
Pittsburgh is ranked the 22nd friendliest hitters’ park for RH hitters. An aging Ozuna could see a power decline, but if he is able to provide RBIs for this team, it will be worth the investment.
Marcell is currently sliding back in drafts, going around guys like Matt Wallner, Victor Roles, and Harrison Bader. Marcell may be worth a flier to bet on RBI production to bounce back with a decent lineup in front of him.
As I was writing about Ozuna, the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers made a rather shocking trade.
A couple of things to note: the Sox have a very crowded infield, and Milwaukee has an extremely deep and young rotation.
Starting with Boston, their infield around the horn is projected to be Willson Contreras, Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, and Marcelo Mayer. Post-trade RosterRescource has Durbin sliding in at second and Romy going to the bench. This seems the most fitting. Monasterio and Seigler will most likely be going to AAA to begin the season.
The IKF signing now fills into a bench role, maybe getting 2 or 3 starts a week. I would bank on Mayer and IKF platooning at third base. In standard roto leagues, that would be a pleasant sight for Mayer owners. In his cup of tea at the majors last year, these were Mayer’s splits.
It would just make the most sense for Mayer to begin this season only facing righty’s and let IKF handle the lefty pitching. Currently in NFBC drafts, Marcello is ranked 3B34, just after Josh Smith, Jordan Lawler, and Connor Norby.
Caleb Durbin has proven he can handle major league pitching and should not be at risk of being demoted. He is a contact guy with plenty of speed. If he can lean into his Pull% more, his power numbers could spike, being at Fenway Park. Definitely a great pick to draft in points leagues.
Then, where does Kristen Campbell fit in all this?? I have heard they are trying Campbell in the outfield, but their outfield is just as crowded. There is truly nowhere for Campbell to play until someone gets hurt or struggles so badly that they need to reset in AAA.
Back in Milwaukee, according to RosterResource, Harrison will begin the season at AAA. Now, this can all change with a great spring training, and if injuries occur. For now, Harrison will be a waiver-wire pickup midseason.
The interesting question this creates is who is at third!? The Brewers have multiple options. Again, we will defer to RosterResource to see what they think. They have Joey Ortiz sliding from short to third, and Jett Williams starting at SS. This is pretty ludicrous in my opinion. I think they are going to keep Ortiz at shortstop and run out Tyler Black at third, or give Brock Wilken a good look at Spring Training. Wilken is a name to get familiar with; he is MLB’s #9-ranked third base prospect. A 60-grade power hitter that was their 1st round pick in 2023.
A lot of mid players continue to sign today. Nick Martinez signs with the Rays, Erick Fedde signs with the White Sox, and Chris Paddock signs with the Marlins.
At first glance, it made sense for Tampa to sign Martinez as a long man in the pen, but shortly after he signed, it was reported he would be in the starting rotation. It is possible that Martinez and Matz were signed this offseason to use as trade bait this upcoming trade deadline, as the Rays are projected to finish last in the AL East. Nick has an expansive arsenal, I’m sure Tampa found that enticing. With a JA SIERA of 4.30 and a K-BB% of 11% last season, there is not much to like. Maybe a change of scenery will benefit Martinez this upcoming season. Not someone I am drafting right now in a tough AL East division. This just keeps guys like Ian Seymour and Joe Boyle in AAA.
Fedde going to Chicago to join the back of the rotation pretty much solidifies that David Sandlin will not break camp with the big league club. They are close to getting a decent roster put together, but no cigar. Keeping Sandlin under control for another year is a must for them. Fedde is non-relevant in fantasy.
Chris Paddack was dealt at the deadline last season from Minnesota to Detroit. Paddack does not have strikeout stuff and relies on getting groundballs to be efficient. Before the deadline, his changeup at 24% usage earned a 52% groundball rate. After the deadlin,e he completely lost that ability. Still at a 23% usage, but a 39% groundball rate. This led to Chris going to the bullpen for a few games before returning to the rotation for the final game, since Charlie Morton could not stay in the rotation.
His last game as a starter in Detroit was not good to say the least.
But hey, all three of these guys can say they have big league deals signed and aren’t going to be sitting on the couch like me.
Spring Training is already shaping up to be awesome with a lot of stories and headlines to keep an eye on.