The Offseason Monitor: Nimmo for Semien
A Practical Trade That Helps Two Clubs in Different Ways
In the second one-for-one swaps of this off-season, the New York Mets and Texas Rangers exchanged two established veterans who fill immediate roster spots for both clubs. Marcus Semien heads to Queens, while Brandon Nimmo goes to Texas, giving each club a different style of impact heading into 2026.
Why the Mets Wanted Marcus Semien
Semien’s offensive profile has declined over the past two seasons, but he still brings a dependable skill set. Semien was a top 25 fantasy player for a few years back in 2021-2022 when he was pushing past 50 HR+SB while playing every single game and racking up counting stats.
Since that 2022 season, the steals really haven’t been part of his game, and that’s why the league has massively jumped in that regard. And the power has dried up. He dropped six homers from 2023 to 2024, and then eight more from 2024 to 2025. Just a 15-homer and 11-steal season last year while hitting .230 and not staying healthy all year for the first time. That’s a bad fantasy player. My guess is that the skills are gone. The only way he was ever able to hit 20+ homers was with a high Air Pull rate. He was Isaac Paredes before Isaac Paredes showed up. We’ve seen his air pull rate drop in a very similar fashion to his home run rate.
There’s still a little bit of thump in the bat with a max EV of 110 last year, but that is more base hit power than home run power at this point. The appeal is the availability and defensive prowess. His durability grade of 123 remains one of his best attributes—he stays on the field, something the Mets have lacked at second base.
New York has been searching for a solid replacement to take the reins at second base since Daniel Murphy’s tenure. It is a rotation consisting of Jeff McNeil, Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio. Bringing in Marcus Semien is an instant upgrade over this rotation of players, even though Semien has struggled to provide a significant impact at the plate the past 2 seasons. His draft stock was already trending earlier. I expect him to continue to be drafted slightly earlier, joining a great offense in New York. Semien has 3 years remaining on his deal before he becomes a free agent in the 2028 season, with $26 million AAV in the next two seasons and $20 million AAV in 2028. Does this mean the Mets are clearing room in the outfield for Kyle Tucker??
Why the Rangers Wanted Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo quietly put together another solid offensive season in 2025, hitting .262/.323/.436 with 25 HR and a strong 8.8% barrel rate. His 112.3 mph max EV indicates real pop off the bat, while an 82.8% zone-contact rate and 50% hard-hit rate show that his swing decisions are producing consistent damage. With a Durability grade of 124, he has become one of the more reliable everyday outfielders in baseball.
Texas has struggled offensively ever since its Cinderella 2023 World Series title. Nimmo provides a highly durable bat in the lineup. The Rangers will expect Nimmo to provide a spark by getting on base ahead of Langford and Seager. In recent drafts, we can see on the ADP Draftboard that Nimmo has been going slightly earlier in drafts since the beginning of October. We will see if this trend continues after the news of his new home breaks. Nimmo is under contract through the 2030 season, making $20.5 million AAV.
The Mets and Rangers made a practical, needs-based swap. New York is acquiring an older Semien, who will serve as an anchor in the infield. The middle infield duo of Lindor and Semien is now one of the best in baseball defensively. By clearing approximately $30 million in overall contract value, the Mets are now in a position to acquire a big free agent like Kyle Tucker. Texas, in return, receives Nimmo—a player three years younger, to pencil in the lineup as an everyday corner outfielder to ignite their offense.