The Offseason Monitor: Orioles Ink Alonso to Five-Year Deal
Another impact lands on a new team
The News & Analysis
Five years, $155 million for Alonso! A very similar deal to what Kyle Schwarber landed, and we’ll see Pete Alonso wearing the Orioles orange for the rest of his prime.
The first reaction you might have is about the park factors. Prior to 2025, Camden Yards was the worst park in the league for a right-handed power hitter. But they moved the left field wall in last year, and it made a huge difference.
They went from bottom-five in home run factor for RHB to being above average. A single-year park factor isn’t the most reliable thing in the world, but it’s safe to say that the park isn’t going to limit Alonso’s home run potential. Having played his whole career with Citi Field as his home park, there’s a chance this will be an overall park upgrade for him. According to Expected Home Runs on Savant, it would have been last year (although I don’t think it considers wall height…):
Alonso has been a consistent source of power and run production. Numbers shown below from 2021-2025:
At least 34 bombs in every season with good strikeout rates and above-average walk rates. You know what you’re getting with the guy, a bunch of homers and RBI.
The one thing that you can’t predict with Alonso is the batting average, but in this day and age, we care less than ever. His BABIPs by year:
→ 2019: .280
→ 2020: .242
→ 2021: .274
→ 2022: .279
→ 2023: .205
→ 2024: .276
→ 2025: .305
I’m not going to try to predict what number comes next. But his career batting average of .253 is a fair expectation for the next few years.
The new projection in my model after putting him on the Orioles:
640 PA, 89 R, 35 HR, 97 RBI, 4 SB, .252/.337/.497
Doesn’t take a fancy computer model to project about 35 homers, 97 RBI, and a .250 batting average for Alonso.
Fantasy Ranking
Alonso is the third first baseman off the board in early drafts. He’s a round behind Kurtz & Vlad and a couple of rounds ahead of Harper/Olson/Devers.
I don’t think this news changes anything. You could say that he’s going to a worse lineup, but a slightly better park, but the top of the Orioles lineup is pretty strong with Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, and Ward all mixing in.
I think I’d have him closer to Devers and Olson than he is now. I’m not sure about using an early third-round pick on Alonso, but the solidity is nice and he makes a great pairing with a high steals, lower-power guy that you might take with your first or second rounder.
Orioles Fall Out
This leaves Coby Mayo without a job. We’ve talked for a long time about the Orioles having a bunch of young bats they should be trading for pitching. Instead, they traded Grayson Rodriguez for another outfielder this offseason. It just seems loony if they don’t make a swap or two to bring in rotation help.
It’s not as though Mayo is a proven MLB hitter. He hasn’t been good so far, but you’d have to think there’d be a team more than willing to give him a shot in exchange for an SP3-SP4 type.
Your new Orioles lineup (this is what I’d do, at least):
Jackson Holliday 2B
Gunnar Henderson SS
Jordan Westburg 3B
Pete Alonso 1B
Taylor Ward OF
Tyler O’Neill DH
Dylan Beavers OF
Colton Cowser OF
Adley Rutschman C
That leaves Mayo, Samuel Basallo, and Ryan Mountcastle on the bench or in the minors (in Mayo’s case). There’s one year left on the Mountcastle contract. It makes too much sense for them not to try to shop one of these outfielders, along with Mayo, for as good a starting pitcher as they can find.
But we’ll see where they go from here. The Orioles are clearly in “win now” mode, and I doubt they’re done making moves.