The Offseason Monitor: Ranger Suarez signs with Boston
A steady fit for a rotation that’s quietly getting deep
One of the remaining dominoes fell on Wednesday, with Ranger Suarez signing with the Boston Red Sox on a 5-year deal worth $130 million. I wrote about Ranger in our Winter Meetings preview (find that here). We discussed his injury history and which teams he could fit in with. To my surprise, I did not bring up Boston, shame on me.
Ranger Suárez in Boston:
You don’t sign Ranger Suárez expecting an ace transformation — you sign him because you know exactly what you’re getting.
Suárez brings:
Elite command
Home run suppression
Minimal blow-up starts
Strong innings stability
Fenway Park will test him more than Philadelphia did, particularly on balls pulled in the air, but Suárez’s profile plays well anywhere. His ability to limit hard contact and avoid free passes is what keeps his ERA floor intact, even when the park isn’t forgiving.
A few things to note from 2025. High ground ball percentage, low BB%, above average K-BB%, and low xwOBA. Not much not to like here. It’s a perfect fit in Boston, which now has one of the top 3 rotations in baseball.
Fantasy Outlook: Mostly the Same, With Slight Tradeoffs
From a fantasy perspective, this isn’t a major shift.
Philadelphia and Boston are relatively similar teams in terms of roster quality, competitive window, and overall run environment. Ranger Suárez isn’t stepping into a radically better situation — he’s just changing uniforms.
The core fantasy profile remains intact:
Solid ratios
Reliable innings
Limited strikeout upside
If anything, Fenway introduces a slightly narrower margin for error. Suárez’s success has always been built on weak contact and ground balls, and while that skill set still plays, Boston isn’t quite as forgiving as Philadelphia when balls get elevated to the pull side.
That said, nothing about this move materially changes how he should be drafted. He’s still best viewed as a steady mid-rotation fantasy arm — someone you’re comfortable starting most weeks but not a pitcher you build a staff around.
There’s no real reason to push him up boards, and there’s no reason to fade him either. This signing mostly reinforces what we already know: Ranger Suárez is dependable, predictable, and unlikely to surprise in either direction.
The best pitcher projections, MLB Data Warehouse, has Ranger projected for:
29 GS, 1.21 WHIP, 23.1K%, 6.3BB%, 163 SO
In recent NFBC Drafts, the field isn’t sure where to place Ranger.
As early as ADP 149 and as late as ADP 213, which averages out to SP 54. This lands around Trevor Rogers, Shota Imanaga, and Tanner Bibee.
The Boston rotation was already crowded, and this pushes a handful of guys back another slot. There are now four rotation locks: Crochet, Suarez, Gray, and Bello. You wouldn’t figure the Red Sox traded for Johan Oviedo to put him in the bullpen, so this signing is particularly bad news for young guns like Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. The ADP gives you an idea of what drafters are thinking:
We’re going to see Early and Tolle’s ADP fall substantially. We still think Early gets in the rotation at some point, and probably has a nice career ahead of him, but it's pretty likely that he’ll start the year in AAA, having to wait his turn while continuing to prove his bona fides against minor leaguers.
The Red Sox paid for stability, innings, and a pitcher they know exactly how to deploy. Ranger Suárez doesn’t have to be the ace, and he doesn’t have to carry the staff. He just has to be himself, slot into a deep rotation, and give Boston competitive starts every time through.
For fantasy players, that’s kind of the point, too. There’s no big leap forward, no big step back — just another season where Suárez is steady, usable, and largely predictable. In a rotation that’s shaping up to be a grind for opposing lineups, that consistency still matters, even if it isn’t flashy.