The Offseason Monitor: Rays Reload, Orioles All-In
Baltimore gambles on Baz’s upside while Tampa stacks controllable young talent.
It’s a big afternoon this Friday in the MLB trade market. The Rays keep their garage sale going, dealing Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles for a 4-player return and a 2026 draft pick. At first glance, this looks like an absolute fleece job by the Rays. Baltimore didn’t just add an arm; they acquired a potential frontline starter whose value is tied to upside and team control rather than previous results. This trade signals the Orioles want to win in the short term, no longer prospect-hogging for the future. In return, the Rays add two solid prospects and two 2025 first-round draft picks, plus a Competitive Balance Round A 2026 draft pick—quite a haul for a 26-year-old unproven starting pitcher.
Who is Shane Baz?
Shane Baz was drafted in the 1st round (12th pick) of the 2017 draft from Concordia Lutheran (TX) High School. Finally making his MLB debut in 2021, it was short-lived as he underwent several elbow surgeries, including Tommy John surgery, in Sept. 2022.
2025 represented Baz’s first full MLB season, and the numbers reflect the raw upside and inevitable inconsistencies of a pitcher logging 166.3 innings for the first time:
4.87 ERA | 1.33 WHIP
24.8% K% | 9.0% BB%
15.8% K-BB%
Baz misses bats and has above-average command for a young arm, but the home runs inflated the ERA. And pitching half his starts in an extreme hitter-friendly environment didn’t do him any favors—Tampa’s 2025 park effects trended toward offense. The Orioles must see something they like in Baz with other arms like Edward Cabrera, Freddy Peralta, and MacKenzie Gore available.
[Read Jon’s full preview on Baz from the team previews here]
Fantasy Impact: Rays → Orioles
This is where the trade gets interesting.
Arrow Up for 2026
A move to Baltimore helps Baz’s fantasy stock for three reasons:
Park Upgrade
Far more pitcher-friendly environment than 2025 Tampa.Defense Behind Him
Baltimore’s defense is top-tier—outfield coverage especially—which will aid BABIP regression.Win Potential
Tampa was scrappy, but Baltimore is built to win now.
Baz goes from a .500-ish supporting cast to a legit AL contender → more W/QS upside.
Let’s check out the MLB Data Warehouse projections
163 IP, 29 GS, 9.2 K/9, 8.7 BB%, 167 SO
It looks like we are projecting a similar year from Baz. If he can have better command, it would certainly turn his season into something special. Maybe the Orioles can tap into something, and his new ballpark will keep a few more balls in the yard.
He is currently being drafted around ADP 200ish, which would be SP60. You may see his ADP creep up a bit with his new ballpark. He is currently being drafted around guys like Connelly Early, Edward Cabrera, and Kris Bubic. Check out the ADP dashboard here.
The Haul
Tampa Bay, in exchange for Baz, is receiving the Orioles #6 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, in Slater de Brun (also known as “lil slay”), their #10 prospect in Caden Bodine, #11 prospect Michael Forret, and #30 prospect Austin Overn. You can listen to Jon and Tim break down these prospects here.
I’ll quickly summarize each. Slater de Brun, more commonly known for his baseball skills, not his singing abilities, has comps to Corbin Carroll. There isn’t much data on him at this time since he was drafted out of High School and only played in the FCL after being drafted. The ceiling is very high for Slater as he was committed to take his talents to Vanderbilt University before being drafted in the first round.
Caden Bodine personally is one of my favorite prospects in the Orioles’ Farm System. I watched a ton of Coastal Carolina Baseball this past year, and Caden led the Chanticleers to the pinnacle of college baseball, the NCAA College World Series. Bodine is known for his defense and hit tool, mostly. In 49 PA in Low A Delmarva, Caden slashed .326/.408/.349 with a 16.3% K rate. Impressive stuff, but as you can see, not a ton of power.
Michael Forret has an interesting pitch mix and is a highly touted pitching prospect in the Orioles system.
Those fScores tell the story. In the podcast, Tim raves over Forret's potential. Tampa’s highly regarded pitching development team should be able to turn this guy into something special.
Austin Overn is an interesting outfield prospect with wicked speed.
In 2024, Overn stole 15 bags; in 2025, that number jumped to 63. He had an issue striking out at a 27.4% clip last year combined in AA and AAA. If he can make more contact and get on base at the Major League level, the Rays have another speedy weapon in their outfield to pair with Chandler Simpson.
In the end, I believe the Orioles did overpay, giving up four solid prospects and a 2026 draft pick, but at the end of the day, the O’s want to win now. Those prospects were not sniffing the Majors anytime soon in the Orioles organization.
The Rays seem to be unloading some of their major league talent to revamp their farm system for the future. Just today, they have dealt Shane Baz, Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Mason Montgomery. You can hear more about the Rays’ other trade today from Jon here.