The Offseason Monitor: Wrigleyville bolsters rotation
Cubs flip prospect for pitching - breaking down the Marlins and Cubs trade
The Chicago Cubs are well-known budget watchers who do not like to spend more than they have to. It is highly likely they do not bring Kyle Tucker, a player they spent a lot of prospect capital on last season, back for 2026. A trend they are continuing this offseason, sending their #1 prospect along with two other prospects to South Beach for three years of a young controllable starter who immediately plugs in at the top of their rotation.
Miami is in the middle of an interesting period. They played well at times during the 2025 season, but just did not have enough offense. It is an extremely young team that has a surplus of young pitching. With Thomas White and Robby Snelling bound to make their debut in 2026, Miami could afford to part with Cabrera to add an MLB top 50 prospect to their lineup.
Owen Caissie: Loud Power, Potential Platoon Signals
Caissie has comps to Wilyer Abreu, and the offensive profile backs it up — left-handed power, patience, and streaky production that can look elite in the right matchup.
His Triple-A splits tell the story clearly:
vs RHP: .309 AVG / .398 OBP / .615 SLG (1.013 OPS)
vs LHP: .217 AVG / .351 OBP / .359 SLG (.710 OPS)
Strikeout rate: ~28% across the board
Against right-handed pitching, Caissie is a legitimate middle-order threat. The power plays, the on-base skills are real, and the contact quality is strong enough to do damage even with swing-and-miss in the profile. Against lefties, however, the bat slows down considerably, and the swing decisions become more exploitable.
In Caissie’s cup of tea at the big league level last year, he struck out a ton (40% K%) and did not see a single opportunity against a lefty. But that should not detract from the power upside we know he has from the rest of his time in pro ball.
Miami Fit & Fantasy Outlook
Projections are cold on Caissie’s immediate impact, but opportunity matters — and Miami will give him plenty of playing time. Even if the efficiency isn’t there right away, volume alone makes him relevant in deeper fantasy formats. The power will come in waves, and the counting stats should follow simply because the Marlins need his bat in the lineup.
Edward Cabrera: Hoping for Stability, Possible Stardom
From Chicago’s perspective, this trade is about reliability and chasing ace-level upside.
Projections paint Cabrera as a solid, mid-rotation arm rather than a breakout candidate. The strikeout ability remains intact, but the model bakes in his long-standing issues with command, efficiency, and durability.
Cabrera’s arsenal is an interesting one:
If you have ever watched one of his starts, you know his changeup and his fastball are extremely similar in speed, but his changeup falls off the table and is almost impossible to hit. The difference is spin rate; the changeup is about half of his four-seam, which induces the falling off the table action. It is evident this is the case due to the 64% groundball rate against his changeup. The best part? That isn’t even his best pitch; his curveball and slider are graded higher and earn the most SwStr%.
Furthermore, Cabrera provides controlled innings, something the Cubs badly needed after an inconsistent 2025 rotation. He doesn’t need to be dominant — just dependable enough to stabilize the middle of the staff.
An interesting note with the Cubs organization is that they recently promoted Tyler Zombro to VP of pitching. He served as a special assistant to Jed Hoyer last season. The Nationals interviewed Zombro to become their new major-league pitching coach, but he ultimately returned to Chicago. Zombro has worked with Tread Athletics, a pitching “firm” that is solely focused on helping pitchers become their best selves by using every bit of technology and analytical data available. NFBC ADP has Edward ranked as SP 58. This falls around pitchers like his new teammate Cade Horton, Shane Baz, and MacKenzie Gore. I am probably going to buy a few shares of Cabrera at this price and hope that the Cubs tap into his already wicked arsenal and evolve into an ace-caliber starter. Full story about the Zombro promotion.
The Other Pieces: Hernandez & De Leon
The remaining prospects — Christian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon — are harder to evaluate due to a lack of public statistical data. Hernandez has flashed tools and athleticism in scouting circles, while De Leon remains more of a developmental lottery ticket.
For Miami, these additions fit the broader goal: accumulate controllable position players and sort out the hits from the misses later.
Final Take
This trade makes sense for both sides — just in very different ways.
Cubs: Prioritize pitching stability and near-term competitiveness
Marlins: Acquire power, playing-time upside, and long-term flexibility
Caissie may never be a true star, but in Miami, he’ll get every chance to prove he’s more than a platoon bat. Cabrera, meanwhile, doesn’t need to exceed expectations to justify the move — he just needs to meet them.
Sometimes, that’s the smartest bet a front office can make. From what we can tell now, the price of pitching is extremely high.
Jon’s Take
I’ll throw in my two cents here. I’m currently still editing Hunter’s work, but he’s been great so I’m about to give him the green light.
I’m not much of an Edward Cabrera believer (read his breakdown in the Marlins preview here), but I think this is an easy win for the Cubs. They needed SP help, and there is a legitimate chance that the lower walk rate we saw from E-Cab last year sticks. If it does, it’s a smash for the Cubs. I agree with what was said above, he’s not the SP1-SP2 threat that some might think, but a solid SP3 is incredibly valuable in the Majors, and this NL Central is wide open.
But I’m more anti-Caissie than pro-Cabrera. The guy could easily prove to be a Joey Gallo minus the one awesome season Gallo had. When you’re hopeless against lefties and strike out a ton against righties, there’s a very narrow path to true MLB value. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Caissie is a forgotten name in 2-3 years’ time.